cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: geez
Sun Jun 10 2007 06:03 AM
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Pulsing of the convection, currently in a down-time, but this is fairly common with systems in their gestational phases, and beyond. One thing that has become much clearer overnight is that rather than two low centers competing with each other, which as been somewhat the case all along, it might be that the center now near 10N 23.5W as of this response is the winner. This could allow for some structural reorganization today, about that center.
So, we wait and see if this is actually one to make record books, if even it only just barely gets a name. Recon is not in there, so the best we have for a clue as to whether or not it may get officiated are the T numbers, which are up from doesn't rate to 1.0 now, although I would suggest that the "too weak" was probably an unrealistic appraisal. There's also the tea leaves within TWDs.
I want to see several hours of solid reorganization and some re-deepening of the convection before I truly start to get excited over this one. Regardless, it is still a very impressive feature considering the location, and month.
We have talk about model hints of something in the southern GOM and/or Caribbean. No doubt that pressures are running below climo here already, and overnight pressures have been falling even lower. No surprise, the mid-upper level retrograding tutt feature seems to be enhancing these surface pressure falls in the region and helping fan some convection, but also while increasing shear in much of the area, as well. No Invest tag here just yet. Still, it bears some watching considering that it's much closer to home than light-years-away 93L is.
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