cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: geez
Mon Jun 11 2007 02:45 PM
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Eh. Just an alternate view-
The Good Dr. Masters also posted that there wouldn't be a single organized tropical system during the entire first few weeks of June ("Due to the high levels of wind shear expected over the next two weeks, I'm forecasting only a 20% chance of a named storm forming during this period") ... within three hours of Barry being named. I thoroughly enjoy his posts, consider him brilliant, but enjoy thinking for myself even more than that. As for models, if we had a nickel for every time the models oversniffed or undersniffed a tropical or subtropical feature, we could probably take a pretty nice vacation on the tropical get-away of our choice.
Having gone there, it's still fairly obvious that the shear -is- a little high, but some of this may be coming down in spots, at least. Additionally, the TUTT which retrograded southwest from Florida is weakening now, and yet the convection continues. As do two apparent surface trofs: one in the southern GOM, and the other in the western Caribbean. In fact, the TUTT is now of the size and intensity where it may do more good to any feeble surface feature which tries to get going, than harm.
I might submit that given the persistence of the convection in the area, the resilience of some surface trofiness, and warm SSTs, moderate shear, while a detriment, may not be a basin killer, either. Furthermore, depending on which shear product you chose to look at for analysis, it's not altogether -that high- Take
CIRA's TCFP shear analysis, for example.
In fact, they currently analyze a slightly positive anomaly bias for TC formation, as shown
here.
Either way, it sure is looking mighty pretty down there right now - with mostly blue skies and only scattered convective clusters, and nothing imminent. 93L is heading that way, but it went poof, although remains as a wave with intermittent very slight convection. No "there" there at the moment, either, and several days away, at best.
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