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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 309 (Idalia) , Major: 309 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 309 (Idalia) Major: 309 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#25A 1:00 am EDT
19.5N 84.8W
Wind: 110MPH
Pres: 974mb
Moving:
Wnw at 20 mph
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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: La Nina Still Expected
      Tue Jun 12 2007 10:07 AM

About a month ago I did a little research from a slightly different angle. Since ENSO conditions are only available from 1950, I decided to check El Nino Region 3.4 anomalies against all of the very active seasons since 1950. I defined an active season as 14 named storms or more (there have been 10 of these) and ENSO neutral conditions as anything from +0.5C to -0.5C. I used the average sea surface temperature anomaly for the three month period of May, June and July (figuring that a three month lag was reasonable between Pacific ENSO conditions and Atlantic activity). The results coincide nicely with the findings of Ostro & Lyons.

1953...14 storms...+0.4 anomaly
1969...17 storms...+0.4 anomaly
1990...14 storms...+0.3 anomaly
1995...19 storms...+0.1 anomaly
1998...14 storms...+0.1 anomaly
2000...14 storms...-0.6 anomaly (weakening La Nina)
2001...15 storms...+0.1 anomaly
2003...15 storms.....0.0 anomaly
2004...15 storms...+0.4 anomaly
2005...28 storms...+0.3 anomaly

Conclusion: Although the dataset is limited, it appears that very active seasons generally occur under initially 'neutral' ENSO conditions. A strong La Nina doesn't really enhance activity, but a strong El Nino (1992, 1997, 2006) will limit activity.
Cheers,
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* La Nina Still Expected Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Jun 12 2007 10:07 AM
. * * Re: THE BRITS HURRICANELONNY   Fri Jun 22 2007 07:43 AM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jun 11 2007 09:12 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected cieldumort   Mon Jun 11 2007 11:21 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 12 2007 10:07 AM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected cieldumort   Tue Jun 12 2007 12:58 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:51 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected Clark   Sun Jun 17 2007 09:24 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected Hurricane29   Mon Jun 18 2007 02:22 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected-stu ostro LoisCane   Tue Jun 12 2007 08:32 AM

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