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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 309 (Idalia) , Major: 309 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 309 (Idalia) Major: 309 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#25A 1:00 am EDT
19.5N 84.8W
Wind: 110MPH
Pres: 974mb
Moving:
Wnw at 20 mph
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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell
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cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2343
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: La Nina Still Expected
      Tue Jun 12 2007 12:58 PM

Wow, Ed. Thanks for reposting that! While the dataset is limited, and other factors notwithstanding, the signal strikes me as crystal clear (active seasons, as reasonably defined, seem to -prefer- initially neutral ENSO conditions) as you conclude. I can't read that any other way.

I am curious as to some more of the finer points.. perhaps you could refer me to if you have them listed elsewhere, or could repost them here sometime?

Here are the other questions your review brings up:

How many of the initially neutral conditions also coincided with seasons that were:
about normal
below normal

and what then is the percentage of seasons with initially neutral conditions that were below, about, and above normal activity in the Atlantic?

Having gotten that far, were there possibly any other clues in any of the tea leaves that you were able to catch that may have offered an explanation as to why some of these initially neutral seasons went on to become which of the three final results?

Thanks

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* La Nina Still Expected Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Jun 12 2007 12:58 PM
. * * Re: THE BRITS HURRICANELONNY   Fri Jun 22 2007 07:43 AM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jun 11 2007 09:12 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected cieldumort   Mon Jun 11 2007 11:21 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 12 2007 10:07 AM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected cieldumort   Tue Jun 12 2007 12:58 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:51 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected Clark   Sun Jun 17 2007 09:24 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected Hurricane29   Mon Jun 18 2007 02:22 PM
. * * Re: La Nina Still Expected-stu ostro LoisCane   Tue Jun 12 2007 08:32 AM

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