cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again
Wed Jun 13 2007 04:35 AM
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Looks like pressures are falling area-wide in the Caribbean tonight. Noteworthy, some run-to-run consistency from GFDL, as it has wanted to cook-up a respectable warm core depression of about 1000-1010 mb in the same general location where we witnessed Barry birth. Canadian somewhat agreeable for this, while other models seem to be sticking to the broad trofiness regime of late, more or less. Given tonights widespread and more respectable surface pressure falls coinciding with an increase in nocturnal convection, it could be something. Then again, it could just be a brief regional bad weather enhancement as a wave is pushing on through westward and a few strictly non-tropical impulses approach from the southeastern U.S. If I was to place bets on the region, I would say that something -is- trying to brew down there, if nothing more, and actually appears somewhat similar to how GFDL has been suggesting things would happen.
Old X-Invest 93L, the first true to form Cape Verde eye candy of the season (and early at that!), now the remnants of it existing as a weak but significant wave, looks about to start its approach to the Lesser Antilles later today. A few showers are starting to fire back up along it, at long last. Something to watch, as it likely will produce a few blustery moments and perhaps some showery weather as it passes, if nothing else.
Typhoon Tip's interest in the possible signal of early activity rolling off of western Africa will hopefully treat us to a more intensive analysis from him, or perhaps from a few of the long-time Flhurricane-member mets, should those trends continue. I believe climatology favors such easterly waves meet a very untimely demise this time of year... even those that become bona fide low-level low pressure systems/ borderline numberable features such as 93L briefly became, just bite the dust as they hit the cooler waters out there while ingesting the drier air, all while often encountering greatly increased wind shear, and any other impenetrable obstacles they may face. It's when they sneak up into the Caribbean, such as x93L may do this week, that historically there may be a 1 in 10 (?) to 1 in 20 (?) chance of -something- happening early in a season.
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