dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again
Thu Jun 14 2007 01:29 AM
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I'd like to make reference to both areas of weather in your post from least likely to more likely to have any shot at development.
Area 1.) The Bahamas...
Not a bad observation to recognize the activity over the bahamas, but this area is under higher levels of shear from an upper level cut off low off of Georgia, which is part of a string of now less than four(4) upper level cut-offs (Which are quite beautiful to watch on the water vapor loop. Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html ) ...This cut-off is actually sponsoring thunderstorm development and making this look like something more than it is. However, this development of thunderstorms is not of a nature that is tropical or subtropical. This area is not a candidte for development and as we see during this transitional time of year, such an area of activity will likely pulsate to the North East with little consequence. As for the next point of discussion, which is coming now...interactions of the earlier referenced cut-off lows would affect Carribean and Eastern GoMex development opportunities from an outflow standpoint.
Area 2.) The Northwest Caribbean...
Well, things might get interesting there. Right now, I give a 1 in 4 to a 1 in 3 chance of something popping down there. However, that is more like24-48 hours in my mind. The opportunity for amore favorable outflow environment may happen based on what is seen in the water vapor and there is some indication in the models. Let's tackle the water vapor first (Please revisit the loop link during this discussion). The upper low near the west side of the Yucatan seems some what planted in place. Grow more interested if this heads southwest or west. Second, the upper low referenced off of Georgia in the "Bahamas" part of this post is generally ENE. Whether the cut-off low westofthe Yucatan retrogrades or not, the area around the Yucatan Channel and the easter gulf will be more favorable in 24-48hours. If theupper level cut-off west of theYucatan does retrograde westward or southwest, then there will be a better development opportunity and the odds are no longer a one in four or a one in three bet.
As for the models,on my last quick look all of the with the exception of the Nogaps and the UKMET indicated some level of vorticity (Yes,at the 850mb level, I like that one too for potentially developing systems) The CMC was very fast in Forward Speed, the GFS was very slow, and the GFDL (TD 3-E Model Run) was almost looking too slow too. All models that demonstrate weak development show vorticities on the weaker end of the scale, so there is some promise of development on the tropical depression to weak tropical storm end if the models remain persistant. At high confidence, rain chances increase for the eastern Gulf interests on days 3-6. On the lower end of confidence, that rain may come with a couple gusts of wind and a name that will be remebered as another helper in the drought busting effort. If something does develop...At this time, something like Barry is as strong as I could imagine if something does develop, but time will tell if anything evolves at all.
Edited by dem05 (Thu Jun 14 2007 02:23 AM)
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