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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Idalia) , Major: 302 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia) Major: 302 (Idalia)
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danielwAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Discussion~excerpts
      Wed Jun 13 2007 11:56 PM

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007 (edited~danielw)

...A WANING TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF/ CAMPECHE SOUND...WILL MOVE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 24 HRS... WITH WEAK VORTEX OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 48 HRS. AT 60-72 HRS IT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AS IT MERGES INTO THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS/ EASTERN USA.

...WITH A STRONG VORTEX ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA/ CAROLINAS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY 24 HRS.
AT 500 HPA THIS VORTEX WILL MERGE/ INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TUTT OVER YUCATAN/ WESTERN CUBA... TO FAVOR/ SUSTAIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
INTO THE YUCATAN.
AT LOW LEVELS A MEANDERING FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS BY 18 HRS...TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS GREAT ABACO-GRAND BAHAMA THROUGH 48-54 HRS...THEN WEAKEN AS IT RETROGRESSES.

(edit~danielw: Basically... Florida receives more rain/ rain showers)

...A PROGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 63W AND SOUTH OF 17N.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG 67/68W BY 24 HRS... 71W/72W BY 36 HRS...74W BY 48 HRS...76W/77W BY 60 HRS...78W BY 72 HRS...AND 80W/81W BY 84 HRS.
WINDS ARE TO SURGE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FOLLOWING THIS WAVE... WITH GFS PROJECTING 850 HPA (5000ft~) WINDS OF 25-35KT ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY 24-84 HRS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH 36-42 HRS... WITH WINDS OF 35-45KT.

(edit~danielw: 850mb winds adjusted to surface levels are just under Tropical Storm force. Using an 80% correction)

CARIBBEAN FORECAST DISCUSSION

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Barry Gone, Quiet Again MikeCAdministrator Wed Jun 13 2007 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts BillD   Thu Jun 14 2007 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts BillD   Thu Jun 14 2007 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts Hurricane29   Thu Jun 14 2007 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts audienceofone   Thu Jun 14 2007 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts cieldumort   Thu Jun 14 2007 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts Hurricane29   Thu Jun 14 2007 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts scottsvb   Thu Jun 14 2007 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts allan   Thu Jun 14 2007 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts Ricreig   Thu Jun 14 2007 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts doug   Thu Jun 14 2007 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts nc_wx_watcher   Thu Jun 14 2007 09:10 AM
. * * Tropical Discussion~excerpts danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 13 2007 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again dem05   Wed Jun 13 2007 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again nc_wx_watcher   Wed Jun 13 2007 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again cieldumort   Wed Jun 13 2007 04:35 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again typhoon_tip   Wed Jun 13 2007 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again madmumbler   Tue Jun 12 2007 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again Ed in Va   Tue Jun 12 2007 09:54 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again typhoon_tip   Tue Jun 12 2007 12:39 AM
. * * Re: geez cieldumort   Mon Jun 11 2007 02:45 PM
. * * Re: geez doug   Mon Jun 11 2007 10:38 AM
. * * Re: geez cchsweatherman   Mon Jun 11 2007 08:01 AM
. * * Re: geez Hugh   Sun Jun 10 2007 09:58 AM
. * * Re: geez nc_wx_watcher   Sun Jun 10 2007 08:27 AM
. * * Re: geez cieldumort   Sun Jun 10 2007 06:03 AM
. * * Re: geez cieldumort   Sat Jun 09 2007 10:40 PM
. * * geez HanKFranK   Sat Jun 09 2007 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead HanKFranK   Sat Jun 09 2007 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again Cat 5orBust   Sat Jun 09 2007 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jun 09 2007 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead madmumbler   Sat Jun 09 2007 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead cieldumort   Sat Jun 09 2007 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead BillD   Sat Jun 09 2007 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead madmumbler   Sat Jun 09 2007 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas madmumbler   Sat Jun 09 2007 09:03 AM
. * * Week Ahead danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 09 2007 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas typhoon_tip   Fri Jun 08 2007 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Steve   Fri Jun 08 2007 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Steve   Fri Jun 08 2007 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas madmumbler   Fri Jun 08 2007 08:23 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 07 2007 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas West FL Jess   Thu Jun 07 2007 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas madmumbler   Thu Jun 07 2007 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 07 2007 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 07 2007 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Hurricane29   Thu Jun 07 2007 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 07 2007 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Ron Basso   Thu Jun 07 2007 02:16 PM
. * * graveyard HanKFranK   Wed Jun 06 2007 06:58 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jun 06 2007 05:16 PM

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