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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts
      Thu Jun 14 2007 08:24 PM

1000 AM EDT THU 14 JUN 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUNE 2007

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 15/1800Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

I think the take-away is really this:
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


Some perspective, perhaps -

The fact of the matter is a low-level to surface trof has been in the western Caribbean in one form or another for a few days now. Recently, a surface low center has developed in the extreme northwestern Caribbean - just about where GFDL and CMC expected it to. Both of those models forecast a warm-core depression, perhaps a weak TS.

If one was to give equal weight to all of the most often cited models, there would be an expectation of a 1 in 4 chance of a TC forming in that general area by the end of this weekend, or so. Given the big picture, and that backdrop, NHC certainly is keeping an eye on this. However, as they state, upper-level winds are not favorable for development. This is not to say that something doesn't pop. It does suggest that anything which tries to get going, as is indeed the case, will have an unusually difficult time pulling it off.

Edited for clarity-

Simply because a feature has a less than an ideal environment in which to "pull it off" does not mean that recon won't fly in, especially when such a suspect area is precariously close to potential landfall(s). Additionally, even if such a feature which may develop may not do so for a few more days going out, it -could- do so sooner rather than later, although a slower progression (if any) under conditions like these seems more plausible.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Jun 14 2007 10:39 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Barry Gone, Quiet Again MikeCAdministrator Thu Jun 14 2007 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts BillD   Fri Jun 15 2007 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts BillD   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts Hurricane29   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts audienceofone   Thu Jun 14 2007 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts cieldumort   Thu Jun 14 2007 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Jun 14 2007 07:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts Hurricane29   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts scottsvb   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts allan   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts Ricreig   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts doug   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts nc_wx_watcher   Thu Jun 14 2007 01:10 PM
. * * Tropical Discussion~excerpts danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:56 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again dem05   Thu Jun 14 2007 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again nc_wx_watcher   Wed Jun 13 2007 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again cieldumort   Wed Jun 13 2007 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again typhoon_tip   Wed Jun 13 2007 05:14 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again madmumbler   Tue Jun 12 2007 09:36 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again Ed in Va   Tue Jun 12 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again typhoon_tip   Tue Jun 12 2007 04:39 AM
. * * Re: geez cieldumort   Mon Jun 11 2007 06:45 PM
. * * Re: geez doug   Mon Jun 11 2007 02:38 PM
. * * Re: geez cchsweatherman   Mon Jun 11 2007 12:01 PM
. * * Re: geez Hugh   Sun Jun 10 2007 01:58 PM
. * * Re: geez nc_wx_watcher   Sun Jun 10 2007 12:27 PM
. * * Re: geez cieldumort   Sun Jun 10 2007 10:03 AM
. * * Re: geez cieldumort   Sun Jun 10 2007 02:40 AM
. * * geez HanKFranK   Sun Jun 10 2007 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Week Ahead HanKFranK   Sun Jun 10 2007 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again Cat 5orBust   Sun Jun 10 2007 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Week Ahead Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 10 2007 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Week Ahead madmumbler   Sat Jun 09 2007 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead cieldumort   Sat Jun 09 2007 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead BillD   Sat Jun 09 2007 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead madmumbler   Sat Jun 09 2007 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas madmumbler   Sat Jun 09 2007 01:03 PM
. * * Week Ahead danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 09 2007 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas typhoon_tip   Sat Jun 09 2007 03:55 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Steve   Sat Jun 09 2007 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Steve   Fri Jun 08 2007 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas madmumbler   Fri Jun 08 2007 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 08 2007 03:25 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas West FL Jess   Fri Jun 08 2007 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas madmumbler   Fri Jun 08 2007 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 07 2007 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 07 2007 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Hurricane29   Thu Jun 07 2007 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 07 2007 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Ron Basso   Thu Jun 07 2007 06:16 PM
. * * graveyard HanKFranK   Wed Jun 06 2007 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jun 06 2007 09:16 PM

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