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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Idalia) , Major: 275 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 275 (Idalia) Major: 275 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL

Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...
Fri Jun 15 2007 03:59 AM

I have to agree with the NHC TWO on this one. The Upper level winds will begin to slacken as we move into tomorrow afternoon, and could become more and more favorable as we move through Friday night and into the weekend. Last night, I made refernce to an upper level low to the west of theYucatan as well as some other upper level features. Last nights post reflected more on the idea that the upper level low west of the Yucatan and could aid in some weak development (at the time, I was saying in about 48 hours). As we can see this evening, the upper level low did not remain planted to the west of the Yucatan. In fact, the the upper trough over Florida seems to have grabbed that upper low and has pulled it off to the east north east. At this time, the upper level low is presently over 94L and is on it's way out.

While this upper level low is harming 94L's opportunity to become better organized at this time, it is moving out fairly quickly and should not overly harm the basic dynamics that are permitting this surface area of low pressure (94L) in the western Carribean. As the upper level low departs to the ENE, there is an area of ridging and lighter upper winds across the western GOMex and Mexico that will have an opportunity to fill in behind the cutoff. With that said, this air mass is a bit "arid", but the winds will become more favorable over the Western Carribean and the Eastern Gulf. I know I have seen tropical systems that developed while working with less. Tropical Storm Arlene in 2005 is not a bad example. So with that said, I would not write this one off if it does not develop in the next 24 hours and I believe that tomorrow night into Saturday will be more interesting with respect to development opportunities.

P.S. The Water Vapor Link demonstrates tonight's observations pretty good: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Watching the Western Caribbean...	MikeC	Fri Jun 15 2007 03:59 AM
Re: SAL Dust in Carb.	Storm Hunter	Wed Jun 27 2007 09:27 PM
SAL Dust in Carb.	Storm Hunter	Wed Jun 27 2007 03:44 AM
Incoming Tropical Moisture	crpeavley	Tue Jun 26 2007 12:47 PM
Saturday morning	danielw	Sat Jun 23 2007 01:10 PM
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean...	scottsvb	Sat Jun 23 2007 03:35 AM
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean...	Ed Dunham	Fri Jun 22 2007 08:15 PM
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean...	scottsvb	Fri Jun 22 2007 06:06 PM
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean...	weatherguy08	Fri Jun 22 2007 05:32 PM
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean...	nc_tropical_wx79	Fri Jun 22 2007 05:01 PM
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean...	weatherguy08	Fri Jun 22 2007 04:29 PM
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean...	allan	Fri Jun 22 2007 04:16 PM
Re: Watching the Western Caribbean...	weatherguy08	Fri Jun 22 2007 03:35 PM
Re: Western Caribbean Area	cieldumort	Fri Jun 22 2007 02:38 PM
Re: Western Caribbean Area	allan	Fri Jun 22 2007 02:07 PM
Re: Western Caribbean Area	dem05	Fri Jun 22 2007 06:41 AM
Re: Western Caribbean Area	cieldumort	Fri Jun 22 2007 05:40 AM
Re: Western Caribbean Area	dem05	Fri Jun 22 2007 04:11 AM
Re: Western Caribbean Area	cieldumort	Thu Jun 21 2007 10:28 PM
Re: Western Caribbean Area	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Jun 21 2007 10:05 PM
Western Caribbean Area	danielw	Thu Jun 21 2007 09:39 PM
Re: Satellite Links	Ed Dunham	Wed Jun 20 2007 10:54 PM
Re: Satellite Links	ltpat228	Wed Jun 20 2007 09:48 PM
Re: Satellite Links	Storm Hunter	Wed Jun 20 2007 09:13 PM
new entry	HanKFranK	Wed Jun 20 2007 09:10 PM
Satellite Links	danielw	Wed Jun 20 2007 04:33 AM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	nc_tropical_wx79	Sun Jun 17 2007 12:52 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	scottsvb	Sat Jun 16 2007 04:46 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	allan	Sat Jun 16 2007 03:38 PM
blockiness abounds	HanKFranK	Sat Jun 16 2007 02:21 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	Lamar-Plant City	Sat Jun 16 2007 04:00 AM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	GuppieGrouper	Sat Jun 16 2007 02:00 AM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	allan	Sat Jun 16 2007 01:32 AM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	LoisCane	Fri Jun 15 2007 11:33 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	cieldumort	Fri Jun 15 2007 09:07 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	Hurricane29	Fri Jun 15 2007 08:35 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	HURRICANELONNY	Fri Jun 15 2007 08:24 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	danielw	Fri Jun 15 2007 07:23 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	Ricreig	Fri Jun 15 2007 04:19 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	audienceofone	Fri Jun 15 2007 04:12 PM
Just Some Notes	Ed Dunham	Fri Jun 15 2007 02:23 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	allan	Fri Jun 15 2007 02:20 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	nc_tropical_wx79	Fri Jun 15 2007 02:11 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	nc_tropical_wx79	Fri Jun 15 2007 01:24 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	cieldumort	Fri Jun 15 2007 05:50 AM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	dem05	Fri Jun 15 2007 04:26 AM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	dem05	Fri Jun 15 2007 03:59 AM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...	nc_wx_watcher	Fri Jun 15 2007 03:13 AM

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