cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...
Fri Jun 15 2007 01:50 AM
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I generally read the situation unfolding similar to Dem, above. With not only the old cut-off TUTT which had been stationed over the NW tip of the Yucatan pulling out to the ENE, but the entire slew of upper level devils embedded within the very large troff which have been collectively bringing severe weather to much of the east coast this week also on their way to slowly pulling out, the surface troffiness which is now tagged as 94L may begin to pull northward, or either side of northward (my best guess at this time is a little more off to the NNE, much as several model runs have already indicated ).
However, a lot of this - whatever "this" ends up being - is really dependent on just which part of the surface low pressure troffiness actually takes hold (if any). For example, if we see the southern Caribbean pop more impressively, we could watch as something cooks a while longer, becomes stronger before heading north - or, conversely, just simply scooting over Central America and out into the East Pac. To qualify, this area is not currently tagged as being 94L, but has had a fleeting LLC this past week along the base of the parent trof, just the same.
Should the feature remain quite shallow and form a bit to the north - about where the two centers of lower pressure have recently been analyzed to be - I suspect "this" could even drift off to the northwest, being pulled along within a weak LLJ towards Texas or western Louisiana.
Then there is that development of choice, or what has been up until today, anyhow - a weak warm-core depression heading north or northeast.
Of course, all of these still remain low probabilities, but plain and simple, odds favor that 94Ls chances for further development go up once all that mess of ULLs and their associated 30 to 60 knot winds o' shredding pull further out of it's picture. If anything, if something really does get going here, a little bit of that ULL energy off to the northeast could make for a convenient source of outflow - bears watching.
By the way, I found a nugget of sorts in tonight's "corrected" TWO. Here's what I found a little interesting:
"...CORRECTED TO ADD ELSEWHERE IN THE LAST SENTENCE...
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
....ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS."
Make of that what you will. I do take it to mean that NHC (or at the very least JB) does intend to convey that the area of disturbed weather (94L) may become a TC -within- 48 hours. This position would make quite a bit of sense actually, especially given the explicit heads-up to a possible recon as early as tomorrow afternoon, and the statements of an expected improving upper level environment.
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