cieldumort
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Posts: 2327
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...
Fri Jun 15 2007 05:07 PM
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Having been watching this area of lower pressure somewhat closely for going on four, five ? days now, it only seems appropriate to me to see it tagged as an invest. -And- if you take a quick eyeball of the region today without getting into the nitty-gritties it's easy to exclaim, "Ah hah!" But really, the pressure tendencies in the area are nowhere near as impressive as they were around 15 00Z. At that time some area reports were even coming in with some rapidly falling pressures.
Convection appears much more impressive, but as stated elsewhere, a lot of this is likely resulting from diffluence aloft, mostly care of the elongated ULL and the weakening TUTT which are still affecting weather in the area. Some hints of a possible surface reflection, tho. Might be something. I guess all of this still just has much more "mongering" flavor to it than I prefer, especially with the upper-levels still close to brutal for tropical cyclone development. Eh.
Nonetheless, having yet again qualified and justified actually watching this feature, it's interesting to note that the earlier GFDL run did make a very strong tropical storm out of "it" and now the very latest GFS run develops a bona fide surface low in the area. Other hints of a good moisture surge and pulling northeastward of the entire ITCZ. Yet more hints of the ULLs pulling even farther away still. Good convection already exists. One could almost talk themselves into believing some of the more outrageous model runs on it... assuming an active imagination.
Should at least become somewhat helpful to see what starts happening in the big regional picture over the next 24 hours, as to just which way the synoptic environment for 94L ultimately turns. Either way, I think it seems plausible that at least SoFlo gets some decent moisture import in part care of 94L, in one form or another.
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