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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2322
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Western Caribbean Area
      Thu Jun 21 2007 06:28 PM

It should be helpful to get a good look at the next QuikSCAT pass over the Caribbean feature. Based on a few area buoy, land and ship reports in the area I glanced-over, there could be some low level turning within the broader cluster. The data is just too sparse and the feature too weak to really make any heads or tails out of it without some help from scat.

I've also noted a few reports of slightly lowering pressures, but nothing at all significant. Again, data being sparse in the area isn't helpful. But, one would sort of expect to see something a little better than a 2mb drop over the course of one full day from a nearby buoy if it were to be getting its act together.

Clearly, its only window for significant development would be if it does in fact jog and/or relocate more over the water - I have also been watching what LPC notes above, with some interest (a possible shift more to the NW than W). And, there is some upper level outflow. This is not altogether unusual, however. Not a "hallmark" of something becoming a tropical cyclone, if you will. Thunderstorm complexes can and do create their own high pressure areas aloft.

Both of these features (Caribbean disturbance & Florida frontal low) did make it into the 5:30 TWO, but without causing a stir. "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours."

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching the Western Caribbean... MikeCAdministrator Thu Jun 21 2007 06:28 PM
. * * Re: SAL Dust in Carb. Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 27 2007 05:27 PM
. * * SAL Dust in Carb. Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 26 2007 11:44 PM
. * * Incoming Tropical Moisture crpeavley   Tue Jun 26 2007 08:47 AM
. * * Saturday morning danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 23 2007 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... scottsvb   Fri Jun 22 2007 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 22 2007 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... scottsvb   Fri Jun 22 2007 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... weatherguy08   Fri Jun 22 2007 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... nc_tropical_wx79   Fri Jun 22 2007 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... weatherguy08   Fri Jun 22 2007 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... allan   Fri Jun 22 2007 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Western Caribbean... weatherguy08   Fri Jun 22 2007 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area cieldumort   Fri Jun 22 2007 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area allan   Fri Jun 22 2007 10:07 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area dem05   Fri Jun 22 2007 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area cieldumort   Fri Jun 22 2007 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area dem05   Fri Jun 22 2007 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area cieldumort   Thu Jun 21 2007 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Western Caribbean Area Lamar-Plant City   Thu Jun 21 2007 06:05 PM
. * * Western Caribbean Area danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2007 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Satellite Links Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jun 20 2007 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Satellite Links ltpat228   Wed Jun 20 2007 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Satellite Links Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 20 2007 05:13 PM
. * * new entry HanKFranK   Wed Jun 20 2007 05:10 PM
. * * Satellite Links danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 20 2007 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... nc_tropical_wx79   Sun Jun 17 2007 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... scottsvb   Sat Jun 16 2007 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... allan   Sat Jun 16 2007 11:38 AM
. * * blockiness abounds HanKFranK   Sat Jun 16 2007 10:21 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... Lamar-Plant City   Sat Jun 16 2007 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... GuppieGrouper   Fri Jun 15 2007 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... allan   Fri Jun 15 2007 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... LoisCane   Fri Jun 15 2007 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... cieldumort   Fri Jun 15 2007 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... Hurricane29   Fri Jun 15 2007 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... HURRICANELONNY   Fri Jun 15 2007 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 15 2007 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... Ricreig   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... audienceofone   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:12 PM
. * * Just Some Notes Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 15 2007 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... allan   Fri Jun 15 2007 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... nc_tropical_wx79   Fri Jun 15 2007 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... nc_tropical_wx79   Fri Jun 15 2007 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... cieldumort   Fri Jun 15 2007 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... dem05   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... dem05   Thu Jun 14 2007 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean... nc_wx_watcher   Thu Jun 14 2007 11:13 PM

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