Watching the Western Caribbean...

I agree. I wish we couldget a good GHCC image of the Carribean feature this evening. Tonight will be critical timeframe for getting additional "development possibility" recognition in the NHC TWO. If the thunderstorms we saw in the morning/afternoon hours had continued, we'd likely be seeing that attention now. If the thunderstorms pulsed up tonight, it may look more interesting by the morning. The wave may get some more attention at that time.

With respect to that, there is evidence that another one of those famous cut-offlows in the upper levels is forming smack in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico and slowly moving SE toward the Yucatan and the NW Carribean. Will be curious to see if this remains weak, but the cut off low is really a bit too far to the east to favor development in the WesternCarribean and the GOMex in the coming days, even if things do look good down there right now. If it were not for this feature, I'd say it had a better shot of development...irregardless of the lack of model support. I've seen plenty of tropical systems develop down there after popping up like this disturbance has...and they were able to make it without the model support, but there have been just as many that did not.

As for the "FL Disturbance"...Much more in the way of thunderstorm activity tonight and almost had a low level cloud pattern that resembled the end game version of Andrea earlier today. This shear is hammering the t-storm activity and the overall organization is not improving (probably deteriorating actually). I think the door is closing on this one quickly.

With that said, I give the Carribean a better shot, but the development of the Upper Level Cutoff Low in the GOMex is gonna affect this Carribean wave before that can really occur. If the cutoff does not strengthen further, there may be some baroclinic opprtunities for some weaker-end hybrid or lopsided development if the wave moves Northwest versus westerly into Central America. Westward into Central America or Belize is definately an end game situation. In all likelyhood, if you are hoping to see some development in the tropics, you/we will probably need to ask Bob Barker if you can see "the next item up for bid".

Edited by dem05 (Fri Jun 22 2007 12:26 AM)

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