cieldumort
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Posts: 2322
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Western Caribbean Area
Fri Jun 22 2007 01:40 AM
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Well, I'm going to lead off with Florida. It's closer to home, and tonight has had a really nice going of nocturnal convection - offshore - with Melbourne NWS noting that MSAS short-range surface analysis plotting a now definitive surface low center drifting generally southward off the Velusia coast. (Forecast Discussion)
Melbourne Long-Range Radar Loop very interesting.
Satellite loops now indicate significant cloud top cooling offshore, with a sizable area colder than -50C, and a still respectable area less than -60C.
I can not see any reason why this feature should not earn an Invest number by daybreak, if this trend continues. Movement of the low appears to be generally SSE or perhaps with a more easterly component if it jumps to play catchup with the deep convection.
The Caribbean feature. Again, I now see no reason why this feature also should not earn an Invest number by daybreak if its trends of the past 24 hours or so continue for another five or six hours or so. Despite a lack of surface obs and nothing current from QuikSCAT, it is clear in the satellite loops that convection does have at least some turning motion, is really rather deep at times, and upper-level outflow is rather stellar tonight.
While it's easy to see the weak ULL which has formed right smack in the middle of the GOM, I might disagree a bit with Dem, above. I think it is currently too weak to do much harm, given their respective positions, and might suggest that it could even be helping promote this impressive outflow tonight, thereby increasing lower level convergence a bit to the north of where the convergence was occurring earlier, and perhaps dragging the entire system, repeatedly analyzed as a trof with an attendant surface low down around 11N, a notch or two further north, yet - perhaps to even recenter the surface low farther north, as well.
By morning it will become much more clear what is going on with these guys. In my honest estimation, they both probably have a somewhat better chance than what the most recent TWO suggested, and we could see that wording massaged a bit by morning, as Dem suggests above.
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