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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
 


Off-Topic >> Everything and Nothing

Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: New Understanding / Remaining Issues
      Wed Jun 27 2007 05:40 AM

Quote:


Thanks again for your replies. Just a little more clarification and I'll be satisfied.




You ask good questions However, I don't think the forecasters are the ones that make the decisions about evacuations, or for that matter, even recommending evacuations. What they do provide is educated guesses based upon their experience and all of the available data they have about the situation, including of course, Quicksat. Now, politicians and other officials make the decisions based upon those forecasts (read: guesses) and as you saw with Katrina, and the Keys with other recent storms, the decisions to evacuate or not are very political and often come too late to be as effective as they should be for orderly and safe implementation. These decisions are often made by people that see the 'line' in the forecast map and don't read the caveat the forecasters give about the 'cone of uncertainty'. Now, if that 'line' is suddenly 'off by 16%' (and I don't know where that number came from but it seems reasonable given the importance of the data Quicksat provides), I can see the critical decisions being further delayed or rationalized (don't evacuate; it is expensive and besides, it is off by 16% so it will miss us anyhow). In other words, IHMO, the loss of *any* tool will make the hard fought gains in forecasting accuracy a very uphill battle. Just don't make the mistake that the forecasters are the ones deciding whether or not to evacuate, they have enough problems trying to determine where the beast is likely to go.....or so it seems to me.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* QuickSat to fail ANYTIME HCW Wed Jun 27 2007 05:40 AM
. * * Quikscat Satellite danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 13 2007 03:49 AM
. * * Quikscat Failure - What am I Missing ?? CoconutCandy   Mon Jun 25 2007 04:11 AM
. * * Re: Quikscat Failure - What am I Missing ?? Robert   Tue Jun 26 2007 05:34 AM
. * * What am I Missing? / Katrina QuikScat Image CoconutCandy   Tue Jun 26 2007 08:14 AM
. * * Re: What am I Missing? / Katrina QuikScat Image Ricreig   Tue Jun 26 2007 12:41 PM
. * * New Understanding / Remaining Issues CoconutCandy   Wed Jun 27 2007 05:09 AM
. * * Re: New Understanding / Remaining Issues Ricreig   Wed Jun 27 2007 05:40 AM
. * * Finally Satisfied / Photo of Florida from the Space Shuttle CoconutCandy   Wed Jun 27 2007 06:26 AM
. * * Re: Finally Satisfied / Photo of Florida from the Space Shuttle madmumbler   Mon Jul 02 2007 02:34 PM
. * * Re: What am I Missing? / Katrina QuikScat Image Robert   Tue Jun 26 2007 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Quikscat Satellite LoisCane   Wed Jun 13 2007 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again josh   Tue Jun 12 2007 10:02 PM

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