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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

mjo time?
Sat Jun 30 2007 04:15 PM

some of y'all have posted excerpts from forecasts indicating that the overall pattern might soon shift over to active with an eastward moving mjo wave. all i can say is that some of the signals i usually look for to expect things to happen are there... the soi index in the pacific has tipped strongly negative, which is usually associated with strong retrogressive motion in the tropical pacific. the pacific has been really quiet lately... i.e. they didn't get a named storm to form this june anywhere in the pacific ocean. when the bay of bengal and arabian sea are setting the pace for global tropical cyclone activity you know things are in weirdsville. from the looks of things the kind of synoptic scale anomalies that favor tropical cyclones coughing up are about to come together and possibly make july twitch to life.
the good news about july is that tropical systems usually don't have the intensity they tend to accumulate later in the season.. the downside would be that they tend to be slow and rainy. most places in the southeast could use a good drenching (with emphasis on the d4 drought in north alabama), but over in, say, the texas hill country or the edge of the prairies out there, a tropical storm is not in order.
for now the models aren't really showing much of anything. that won't mean a whole lot when/if mjo starts up.
HF 2015z30june

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Wave Near Florida	MikeC	Sat Jun 30 2007 04:15 PM
Re: did the front stall?	Ed Dunham	Sun Jul 01 2007 09:48 PM
Re: mjo time?	Ed in Va	Sun Jul 01 2007 01:03 PM
mjo time?	HanKFranK	Sat Jun 30 2007 04:15 PM
Re: did the front stall?	weather_wise911	Sat Jun 30 2007 03:34 PM
Re: did the front stall?	madmumbler	Sat Jun 30 2007 11:22 AM
Re: did the front stall?	weather_wise911	Sat Jun 30 2007 09:45 AM
Re: did the front stall?	Ricreig	Sat Jun 30 2007 02:15 AM
Re: did the front stall?	nc_tropical_wx79	Fri Jun 29 2007 10:56 PM
Re: did the front stall?	Ed Dunham	Fri Jun 29 2007 07:26 PM
did the front stall?	LoisCane	Fri Jun 29 2007 04:20 PM
Re: Wave Near Florida	nc_tropical_wx79	Fri Jun 29 2007 02:16 PM
Re: Wave Near Florida	Sheeper	Fri Jun 29 2007 11:25 AM
Re: Weather Discussions-excerpts	cieldumort	Fri Jun 29 2007 10:26 AM
Re: Weather Discussions-excerpts	PCEOC	Fri Jun 29 2007 09:06 AM
Weather Discussions-excerpts	danielw	Fri Jun 29 2007 12:41 AM
Re: Getting hard to ignore	nc_tropical_wx79	Thu Jun 28 2007 10:45 PM
Re: Getting hard to ignore	ChessieStorm	Thu Jun 28 2007 01:56 PM
Re: Wave Near Florida	Robert	Thu Jun 28 2007 12:53 PM
Re: Getting hard to ignore	LoisCane	Thu Jun 28 2007 11:50 AM
Re: Getting hard to ignore	cieldumort	Thu Jun 28 2007 11:50 AM
Re: Getting hard to ignore	Ed in Va	Thu Jun 28 2007 11:29 AM
Getting hard to ignore	LoisCane	Thu Jun 28 2007 10:44 AM
Re: Wave Near Florida	ChessieStorm	Thu Jun 28 2007 07:36 AM
Re: Wave Near Florida	cieldumort	Thu Jun 28 2007 05:39 AM

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