Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet

Sunday 07/08 11AM (EDST) Update
All quiet on the eastern front. Looking at SST anomalies, the MJO (active Pacific - quiet Atlantic & Indian Oceans), and pressure patterns (surface and aloft), the Atlantic basin seems likely to stay quiet for awhile.
ED

Wednesday 07/04 Noon (EDST) Update
Invest 96L LLCC located near 10.8N 43.7W at 04/15Z continues to move just north of due west at about 15 knots. Minimal convection remains displaced to the south of the circulation center - perhaps under the influence of modest upper level northerly wind shear. Airmass is quite dry immediately north of the system with little change expected over the next few days as the system continues on a west to west northwest track. Overall wind shear is still expected to remain light for the next couple of days, however, an upper level low currently near 14N 60W is forecast to move slowly northward to near 20N 60W by Saturday morning - thus the system will be moving into an increasingly hostile upper air environment by the end of the week.

Still a couple of days for some additional minimal development to occur if the northerly shear relaxes and allows convection to wrap around the north side of the LLCC. But no TD likely unless this happens - with this system you definately need the convection to wrap to the north side and serve as a catalyst for a little intensification before the system encounters the wind shear associated with the upper level low and begins to weaken.

The dry air to the north has kept any deep convection from developing to the north of the circulation thus far, so 96L has not yet met the qualifications for TD status.
ED

Original Post
Since the previous thread is now quite outdated, and since there is some modest interest in a tropical wave located in the mid tropical Atlantic - a new thread seems to be in order.

The weak low along the tropical wave was located near 10N 39W at 03/00Z with movement toward the west at about 15 knots. The system has fair organization and has managed to maintain some convection today in spite of some rather dry air to its north. Wind shear is low and expected to remain low for a few more days as the system continues on its westward journey. SST's are certainly warm enough in the mid Atlantic so there is a small chance that this feature might do something - eventually - but probably not much. The season is still early.

From HanKFranK:
"Yesterday i saw the ITCZ blip at low latitude out near 35w and said 'nah.' today the thing has gained a tad of latitude and has a slightly better signature (if a tad less convection). I'm still saying 'nah' to myself, but maybe tilting my head at it a bit more. it looks like a reasonably favorable upper pattern will accompany it westward, though the environment is quite dry and its amplitude isn't anything to write home about. just the same, might bear a bit of watching. things rarely happen out there this early, but there is some precedent.

Mess near the north American continent is of the less interesting variety. the weak low near Florida is reduced to a frontal trough closer to Bermuda than anywhere.. still some weak shortwave energy along the sagging frontal boundary that is trying to wash out in the southeast. not much doing just yet."
HF 2249z02july

From Storm Hunter:
"Agree with hank... out near 40w. Some of the Globals take this into the Caribbean in a few days. Its pretty dry out there, and there is some Dust around. Based on the pattern, this wave should keeping moving wnw. I also see that the CMC wants to throw up something of Florida east cost in a few days. VERY WEAK... I would keep my eye on the wave in the Atlantic... if it holds, i would expect an invest from navy on it tomorrow."

Otherwise, nothing else of even minor significance is evident in the basin - but we'll all keep a casual lookout just in case a mid July surprise pops up. Since nothing much is really going on - at least not yet - feel free to comment on the above mentioned wave or any others that might generate a spark of interest in the basin over the next couple of weeks.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jul 08 2007 03:06 PM)

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