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Tracking 90L off the coast of central Florida. Low odds but likely blustery and very wet, regardless. Flooding the greatest risk with this one.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 286 (Idalia) , Major: 286 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 286 (Idalia) Major: 286 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2311
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet
      Tue Jul 03 2007 02:30 PM

Some notable observations... Brings up the topic of the ITCZ, or, Intertropical Convergence Zone, some more. While the air tends to be flowing in one direction on its northern side in this hemisphere, "Monsoon Depressions" frequently form within the ITCZ - but with most never, ever becoming Tropical Depressions, and most never even earning as much as an Invest tag. Besides, 96L is simply not your average ITCZ depression, however. It's been more like a full-on wave that has transcended the ITCZ, all along. What is more, the ITCZ, by very definition, is a vorticity-rich environment. It is one very long trof of low pressure. An elongated nebula of cyclogenesis.

I do believe we are indeed viewing incipient banding features, which have been forming overnight. The internal structure of this Low is really not half-bad. Now if it can actually survive all the dry, stable air it has to contend with...

I suspect that it is not so much the wind that has "blown" the convection to the south, as much as it has been the effect of all that dry air to the humble cyclone's north that has squashed any real attempt to wrap deep convection all the way around. You can see this quite clearly in this morning's QuikSCAT pass, from 827Z, here

and this is still quite evident in the 1037Z TRMM pass

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Jul 03 2007 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest Soon? Storm Hunter   Thu Jul 19 2007 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Invest Soon? Ed in Va   Thu Jul 19 2007 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Invest Soon? ElizabethH   Thu Jul 19 2007 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Invest Soon? Tropics Guy   Thu Jul 19 2007 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! Ed in Va   Thu Jul 19 2007 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! allan   Thu Jul 19 2007 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! Robert   Thu Jul 19 2007 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! Hurricane29   Thu Jul 19 2007 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! allan   Thu Jul 19 2007 08:43 AM
. * * Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?! Doombot!   Thu Jul 19 2007 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Water Temps Storm Hunter   Thu Jul 19 2007 05:42 AM
. * * Water Temps Storm Hunter   Thu Jul 19 2007 04:35 AM
. * * Re: ?Inland Low? Storm Hunter   Thu Jul 19 2007 03:55 AM
. * * ?Inland Low? danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 19 2007 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet cieldumort   Wed Jul 18 2007 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Beach   Wed Jul 18 2007 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet cieldumort   Wed Jul 18 2007 08:25 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Storm Hunter   Wed Jul 18 2007 03:27 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet cieldumort   Tue Jul 17 2007 07:25 PM
. * * Re: East of Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Jul 17 2007 06:51 PM
. * * East of Florida Beach   Tue Jul 17 2007 05:26 PM
. * * north of hati Robert   Tue Jul 17 2007 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Robert   Tue Jul 17 2007 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Heads Up?? OUSHAWN   Tue Jul 17 2007 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Heads Up?? cieldumort   Mon Jul 16 2007 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Heads Up?? LoisCane   Mon Jul 16 2007 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Heads Up?? BLTizzle   Sun Jul 15 2007 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Heads Up?? allan   Sun Jul 15 2007 01:06 PM
. * * Heads Up?? danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 15 2007 12:11 PM
. * * CMC Model danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 15 2007 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Robert   Sat Jul 14 2007 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Robert   Sat Jul 14 2007 08:54 PM
. * * Re: 12n 32w Storm Hunter   Sat Jul 14 2007 06:17 PM
. * * Re: 12n 32w scottsvb   Sat Jul 14 2007 05:44 PM
. * * Re: 12n 32w Robert   Sat Jul 14 2007 04:50 PM
. * * 12n 32w Robert   Sat Jul 14 2007 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Long Range Forecast Storm Hunter   Sat Jul 14 2007 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Long Range Forecast cchsweatherman   Fri Jul 13 2007 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Long Range Forecast Tropics Guy   Fri Jul 13 2007 01:52 PM
. * * Long Range Forecast danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 13 2007 04:46 AM
. * * Re: blah nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Jul 10 2007 04:49 PM
. * * Re: blah Ed in Va   Tue Jul 10 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: blah Lamar-Plant City   Mon Jul 09 2007 12:23 AM
. * * blah HanKFranK   Sun Jul 08 2007 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet doug   Fri Jul 06 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Hugh   Fri Jul 06 2007 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet madmumbler   Fri Jul 06 2007 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Bloodstar   Fri Jul 06 2007 08:04 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet cieldumort   Fri Jul 06 2007 07:20 AM
. * * Re: One Other Factor... scottsvb   Fri Jul 06 2007 03:06 AM
. * * One Other Factor... Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jul 06 2007 02:16 AM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 06 2007 01:54 AM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? HanKFranK   Thu Jul 05 2007 11:53 PM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? Bloodstar   Thu Jul 05 2007 08:26 PM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? audienceofone   Thu Jul 05 2007 02:27 PM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? weather_wise911   Thu Jul 05 2007 02:21 PM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? madmumbler   Thu Jul 05 2007 01:35 PM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? cieldumort   Thu Jul 05 2007 06:47 AM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? dem05   Thu Jul 05 2007 06:23 AM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? cieldumort   Thu Jul 05 2007 05:23 AM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Jul 05 2007 04:48 AM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? Hugh   Wed Jul 04 2007 08:28 PM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 04 2007 04:52 PM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? Hugh   Wed Jul 04 2007 03:23 PM
. * * Re: 96L Dead?? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 04 2007 03:07 PM
. * * 96L Dead?? weather_wise911   Wed Jul 04 2007 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Jul 04 2007 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Jul 04 2007 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet allan   Wed Jul 04 2007 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Jul 04 2007 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet dem05   Wed Jul 04 2007 06:04 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet WeatherNLU   Wed Jul 04 2007 05:18 AM
. * * 96L Preliminary model danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 04 2007 04:11 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Storm Hunter   Wed Jul 04 2007 03:58 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet cieldumort   Wed Jul 04 2007 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet HanKFranK   Wed Jul 04 2007 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Hugh   Wed Jul 04 2007 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Clark   Wed Jul 04 2007 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Hugh   Wed Jul 04 2007 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Lamar-Plant City   Tue Jul 03 2007 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet HURRICANELONNY   Tue Jul 03 2007 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet LoisCane   Tue Jul 03 2007 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Rich B   Tue Jul 03 2007 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet LoisCane   Tue Jul 03 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet ftlaudbob   Tue Jul 03 2007 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet cieldumort   Tue Jul 03 2007 02:30 PM
. * * Re: 96L INVEST allan   Tue Jul 03 2007 02:11 PM
. * * Re: 96L INVEST weather_wise911   Tue Jul 03 2007 01:45 PM
. * * Re: 96L INVEST Lamar-Plant City   Tue Jul 03 2007 01:22 PM
. * * Re: 96L INVEST allan   Tue Jul 03 2007 11:20 AM
. * * Re: 96L INVEST WeatherNLU   Tue Jul 03 2007 07:48 AM
. * * 96L INVEST danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 03 2007 06:03 AM
. * * Re: Wave nearing 40W Longitude cieldumort   Tue Jul 03 2007 06:01 AM
. * * Re: Wave nearing 40W Longitude danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 03 2007 05:14 AM
. * * Re: Wave nearing 40W Longitude Storm Hunter   Tue Jul 03 2007 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Wave nearing 40W Longitude danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 03 2007 05:05 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet dem05   Tue Jul 03 2007 05:04 AM
. * * Re: Wave nearing 40W Longitude Storm Hunter   Tue Jul 03 2007 04:50 AM
. * * Wave nearing 40W Longitude danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 03 2007 04:49 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Lamar-Plant City   Tue Jul 03 2007 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Storm Hunter   Tue Jul 03 2007 04:26 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Storm Hunter   Tue Jul 03 2007 04:11 AM
. * * Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet Clark   Tue Jul 03 2007 01:19 AM

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