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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2327
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet
Tue Jul 03 2007 10:30 AM

Some notable observations... Brings up the topic of the ITCZ, or, Intertropical Convergence Zone, some more. While the air tends to be flowing in one direction on its northern side in this hemisphere, "Monsoon Depressions" frequently form within the ITCZ - but with most never, ever becoming Tropical Depressions, and most never even earning as much as an Invest tag. Besides, 96L is simply not your average ITCZ depression, however. It's been more like a full-on wave that has transcended the ITCZ, all along. What is more, the ITCZ, by very definition, is a vorticity-rich environment. It is one very long trof of low pressure. An elongated nebula of cyclogenesis.

I do believe we are indeed viewing incipient banding features, which have been forming overnight. The internal structure of this Low is really not half-bad. Now if it can actually survive all the dry, stable air it has to contend with...

I suspect that it is not so much the wind that has "blown" the convection to the south, as much as it has been the effect of all that dry air to the humble cyclone's north that has squashed any real attempt to wrap deep convection all the way around. You can see this quite clearly in this morning's QuikSCAT pass, from 827Z, here

and this is still quite evident in the 1037Z TRMM pass

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Ed Dunham	Tue Jul 03 2007 10:30 AM
Re: Invest Soon?	Storm Hunter	Thu Jul 19 2007 05:11 PM
Re: Invest Soon?	Ed in Va	Thu Jul 19 2007 03:55 PM
Re: Invest Soon?	ElizabethH	Thu Jul 19 2007 03:13 PM
Re: Invest Soon?	Tropics Guy	Thu Jul 19 2007 02:16 PM
Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?!	Ed in Va	Thu Jul 19 2007 01:29 PM
Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?!	allan	Thu Jul 19 2007 11:17 AM
Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?!	Robert	Thu Jul 19 2007 11:15 AM
Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?!	Hurricane29	Thu Jul 19 2007 09:30 AM
Re: Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?!	allan	Thu Jul 19 2007 04:43 AM
Holy cow! Can you smell what the CMC is cooking?!	Doombot!	Thu Jul 19 2007 02:18 AM
Re: Water Temps	Storm Hunter	Thu Jul 19 2007 01:42 AM
Water Temps	Storm Hunter	Thu Jul 19 2007 12:35 AM
Re: ?Inland Low?	Storm Hunter	Wed Jul 18 2007 11:55 PM
?Inland Low?	danielw	Wed Jul 18 2007 10:38 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	cieldumort	Wed Jul 18 2007 06:45 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Beach	Wed Jul 18 2007 11:16 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	cieldumort	Wed Jul 18 2007 04:25 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Storm Hunter	Tue Jul 17 2007 11:27 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	cieldumort	Tue Jul 17 2007 03:25 PM
Re: East of Florida	nc_tropical_wx79	Tue Jul 17 2007 02:51 PM
East of Florida	Beach	Tue Jul 17 2007 01:26 PM
north of hati	Robert	Tue Jul 17 2007 12:38 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Robert	Tue Jul 17 2007 12:17 PM
Re: Heads Up??	OUSHAWN	Tue Jul 17 2007 11:29 AM
Re: Heads Up??	cieldumort	Mon Jul 16 2007 07:09 PM
Re: Heads Up??	LoisCane	Mon Jul 16 2007 10:59 AM
Re: Heads Up??	BLTizzle	Sun Jul 15 2007 03:28 PM
Re: Heads Up??	allan	Sun Jul 15 2007 09:06 AM
Heads Up??	danielw	Sun Jul 15 2007 08:11 AM
CMC Model	danielw	Sun Jul 15 2007 05:02 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Robert	Sat Jul 14 2007 05:18 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Robert	Sat Jul 14 2007 04:54 PM
Re: 12n 32w	Storm Hunter	Sat Jul 14 2007 02:17 PM
Re: 12n 32w	scottsvb	Sat Jul 14 2007 01:44 PM
Re: 12n 32w	Robert	Sat Jul 14 2007 12:50 PM
12n 32w	Robert	Sat Jul 14 2007 12:45 PM
Re: Long Range Forecast	Storm Hunter	Sat Jul 14 2007 04:03 AM
Re: Long Range Forecast	cchsweatherman	Fri Jul 13 2007 10:06 AM
Re: Long Range Forecast	Tropics Guy	Fri Jul 13 2007 09:52 AM
Long Range Forecast	danielw	Fri Jul 13 2007 12:46 AM
Re: blah	nc_tropical_wx79	Tue Jul 10 2007 12:49 PM
Re: blah	Ed in Va	Tue Jul 10 2007 11:24 AM
Re: blah	Lamar-Plant City	Sun Jul 08 2007 08:23 PM
blah	HanKFranK	Sun Jul 08 2007 04:25 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	doug	Fri Jul 06 2007 11:25 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Hugh	Fri Jul 06 2007 09:20 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	madmumbler	Fri Jul 06 2007 08:40 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Bloodstar	Fri Jul 06 2007 04:04 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	cieldumort	Fri Jul 06 2007 03:20 AM
Re: One Other Factor...	scottsvb	Thu Jul 05 2007 11:06 PM
One Other Factor...	Ed Dunham	Thu Jul 05 2007 10:16 PM
Re: 96L Dead??	danielw	Thu Jul 05 2007 09:54 PM
Re: 96L Dead??	HanKFranK	Thu Jul 05 2007 07:53 PM
Re: 96L Dead??	Bloodstar	Thu Jul 05 2007 04:26 PM
Re: 96L Dead??	audienceofone	Thu Jul 05 2007 10:27 AM
Re: 96L Dead??	weather_wise911	Thu Jul 05 2007 10:21 AM
Re: 96L Dead??	madmumbler	Thu Jul 05 2007 09:35 AM
Re: 96L Dead??	cieldumort	Thu Jul 05 2007 02:47 AM
Re: 96L Dead??	dem05	Thu Jul 05 2007 02:23 AM
Re: 96L Dead??	cieldumort	Thu Jul 05 2007 01:23 AM
Re: 96L Dead??	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Thu Jul 05 2007 12:48 AM
Re: 96L Dead??	Hugh	Wed Jul 04 2007 04:28 PM
Re: 96L Dead??	ftlaudbob	Wed Jul 04 2007 12:52 PM
Re: 96L Dead??	Hugh	Wed Jul 04 2007 11:23 AM
Re: 96L Dead??	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Wed Jul 04 2007 11:07 AM
96L Dead??	weather_wise911	Wed Jul 04 2007 10:39 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Jul 04 2007 09:57 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Jul 04 2007 09:55 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	allan	Wed Jul 04 2007 09:48 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Jul 04 2007 06:38 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	dem05	Wed Jul 04 2007 02:04 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	WeatherNLU	Wed Jul 04 2007 01:18 AM
96L Preliminary model	danielw	Wed Jul 04 2007 12:11 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Storm Hunter	Tue Jul 03 2007 11:58 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	cieldumort	Tue Jul 03 2007 11:44 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	HanKFranK	Tue Jul 03 2007 10:12 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Hugh	Tue Jul 03 2007 10:07 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Clark	Tue Jul 03 2007 09:45 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Hugh	Tue Jul 03 2007 09:29 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Jul 03 2007 06:21 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	HURRICANELONNY	Tue Jul 03 2007 04:01 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	LoisCane	Tue Jul 03 2007 03:41 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Rich B	Tue Jul 03 2007 01:31 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	LoisCane	Tue Jul 03 2007 12:42 PM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	ftlaudbob	Tue Jul 03 2007 11:38 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	cieldumort	Tue Jul 03 2007 10:30 AM
Re: 96L INVEST	allan	Tue Jul 03 2007 10:11 AM
Re: 96L INVEST	weather_wise911	Tue Jul 03 2007 09:45 AM
Re: 96L INVEST	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Jul 03 2007 09:22 AM
Re: 96L INVEST	allan	Tue Jul 03 2007 07:20 AM
Re: 96L INVEST	WeatherNLU	Tue Jul 03 2007 03:48 AM
96L INVEST	danielw	Tue Jul 03 2007 02:03 AM
Re: Wave nearing 40W Longitude	cieldumort	Tue Jul 03 2007 02:01 AM
Re: Wave nearing 40W Longitude	danielw	Tue Jul 03 2007 01:14 AM
Re: Wave nearing 40W Longitude	Storm Hunter	Tue Jul 03 2007 01:09 AM
Re: Wave nearing 40W Longitude	danielw	Tue Jul 03 2007 01:05 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	dem05	Tue Jul 03 2007 01:04 AM
Re: Wave nearing 40W Longitude	Storm Hunter	Tue Jul 03 2007 12:50 AM
Wave nearing 40W Longitude	danielw	Tue Jul 03 2007 12:49 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Jul 03 2007 12:43 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Storm Hunter	Tue Jul 03 2007 12:26 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Storm Hunter	Tue Jul 03 2007 12:11 AM
Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet	Clark	Mon Jul 02 2007 09:19 PM

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