Looks sheared to me - especially looking at the water vapor loop, which shows all of the moisture getting pushed to the south. The dry air certainly is a bigger problem, though, you're right. On the WV loop I can clearly see the circulation... except instead of dark blue (which would be indicative of heavy moisture) the LLC is showing up brown! It's a very strange sight - looks like there is a channel going just shouth of the system, that is a barrier between the incredibly dry air to the north (where the circulation is) and the moisture to the south.
Right now for me its an interesting thing to study, but far from a tropical cyclone (further than earlier today)
ETA: since the sun set over the system, a tiny batch of convection has fired near the LLC. Certainly nowhere close to enough to pull the trigger, but it's interesting.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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