Boy, it's been a while since I've posted here, I don't know where I've been lol
IMHO, I don't see any sort of strong la nina during the summer. The CFS has had trouble with the SSTA magnitude, and with recent SOI trends, that could continue longer, it would seem to run counter to what the model is showing. The SOI has been slightly negative of late, but was very negative just recently (after a string of very strong positives).
I did a study last year that showed that the teleconnection pattern that favored the most activity, and landfalls of named storms on the east coast, happened with a -PDO, +AMO, and neutral-cold ENSO conditions. Some of that is common sense though, as there should be more activity with a +AMO, and neutral-cold ENSO.
One thing that I found most interesting was the AMO/ENSO numbers. A -AMO/+ENSO averaged about 7 named storms per year, whereas a +AMO/+ENSO averages about 11 storms per year. That was the biggest difference in combinations that was seen, 4 extra storms over the -AMO is huge. Last year, 11 named storms. (I still think one should have been named). That showed me the importance of the AMO, which is running postive.
A couple months ago, I went with 16/9/4, and I will stay with that for now.
Jack
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