This is an excerpt of a long range forecast from earlier today. The forecasters are giving notice to the run to run continuity of the GEM Ensemble models. But it appears that the GEM is an outlier. Being the only Model with this solution, and the solution is being cast aside for that reason. My interpretation of the following excerpt. Stay tuned!
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 932 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007
VALID 12Z MON JUL 16 2007 - 12Z THU JUL 19 2007
...GEM GLOBAL STILL INSISTS ON BRINGING A TROPICAL SYS INTO SRN FL AT THE END OF THE PD... A SOLUTION REJECTED AS AN OUTLIER DESPITE THAT MODELS CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
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