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Although still very unlikely to develop or be very strong, there could be an area to watch in the in little more than a week out from energy currently associated with the systems in the East Pacific.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 605 (Milton), US Major: 605 (Milton), FL Any: 605 (Milton), FL Major: 605 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Analysis
Sat Jul 14 2007 06:07 PM

Some of the usual speculation on the various tropical waves that are crossing the pond, but they are all entrenched in the ITCZ - and the ITCZ itself is still too far to the south. Although the MJO has shifted positive, it takes changes in other parameters before a TD can boil up. Scottsvb's analysis on the Main Page article seems realistic - nothing of consequence for awhile yet. When any model generates something within the ITCZ itself, I tend to ignore it. The current waves are staying well south and seem to be stuck on a track that takes them into northern South America. If you want to watch a long shot, I'd monitor the wave at 15N 3W (at 14/18Z) over western Africa - it should move off the west African coast at a slightly higher latitude in a few days.
Cheers,
ED

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Analysis	Ed Dunham	Sat Jul 14 2007 06:07 PM
Re: Analysis	ftlaudbob	Sat Jul 14 2007 10:09 PM

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