cieldumort
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Posts: 2425
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet
Tue Jul 17 2007 03:25 PM
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Lots of talk about the mess in the western Gulf of Mexico, as well as some tiny lower-level spinups in the Caribbean, and a large mostly upper-level low in the central Atlantic. All neat features. Fortunately for those of us who can do without tropical cyclones in the area, surface pressures in all of these regions go the gamut from not low to rather high. Without surface pressures falling rather substantially from these levels, it will be difficult to nearly impossible to get a tropical cyclones birthing in these regions.
Perhaps the feature of most interest of these is this blowup along the coast of eastern Mexico, not only because it is closest to land, but also because there does appear to be a surface trof, however weak, under all of that mess.
To attempt a bit more of a rundown of these features:
Western GOM: Deep tropical moisture fanned by a ULL along the coast. A surface low, perhaps nothing much more than part of the monsoon trof and/or heat low, appears to be well-inland over old Mexico, and an additional surface trof may actually exist under the mess of disorganized showers and storms just offshore a bit. Buoy 42002 located at 25.17N 94.42W is now reporting generally light NNW winds, while Buoy 42055 located at 22.01 N 94.05 W, to 42002's south in the Bay of Campeche, is reporting generally SE winds of about 15-20 knots. At neither of these locations are surface pressures falling, and in fact are rising some and are now relatively high. Any development that might occur here will need several more puzzle pieces coming together just right, first.
In and around the Caribbean: Moderate to high shear abounds. Little mid-level spinups that develop from time to time wash out quickly, as anything closer to the surface gets efficiently mowed by the strong upper level winds and generally moderate to high wind shear in the area.
ULL at about 64W 30N: appears to have worked down to the mid-levels, a little bit, but any surface reflection that may be there is slim to none, and fleeting at best. Detrimental dry air encircles the ULL, and surface pressures in the area are very high. About a snowball's chance in southern Arizona during July of anything happening there.
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