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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: Cosme Weakens, Sputtering
      Tue Jul 17 2007 10:28 PM

I was kinda surprised to see the flareup of convection again this afternoon, given the relative low-level stability over the cooler SSTs. It'll be critical to the storm's survival to see that convection persist, even in a sheared state.

From anecdotal experience, it seems like most storms that track in this direction toward Hawaii do not make it as coherent tropical cyclones. There was one a year or three back -- the J storm, I want to say -- that tried by was reduced to a low-level cloud swirl before it reached the state. The waters seem to be *just* cool enough -- and occasionally coupled with one other negative factor -- to weaken these storms to the point of prohibiting regeneration further west. But, given that the chance is there, it's still prudent to mention it, as the NHC has done and is doing.

Will be interesting to see what ultimately happens...

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Cosme to Become First HURRICANE of 2007 CoconutCandy Tue Jul 17 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now CoconutCandy   Wed Jul 18 2007 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now Clark   Wed Jul 18 2007 09:40 PM
. * * Cosme Gives Big Island a Big Drink CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 23 2007 06:50 PM
. * * Cosme Waning, for Now CoconutCandy   Thu Jul 19 2007 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now RevUp   Wed Jul 18 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Cosme Attempting Regeneration CoconutCandy   Fri Jul 20 2007 03:39 AM
. * * Cosme Weakens, Sputtering CoconutCandy   Tue Jul 17 2007 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Cosme Weakens, Sputtering Clark   Tue Jul 17 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Cosme Weakens to TS, Hawaii Bound CoconutCandy   Tue Jul 17 2007 07:07 AM
. * * Cosme Becomes a HURRICANE, Hawaii Bound CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 16 2007 09:45 PM
. * * TS Cosme likely to become FIRST Hurricane of 2007 CoconutCandy   Mon Jul 16 2007 06:30 AM
. * * Soon to be Tropical Storm Cosme CoconutCandy   Sun Jul 15 2007 11:24 AM
. * * Depression 5E's Demise CoconutCandy   Sun Jul 15 2007 10:23 AM

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