cieldumort
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Posts: 2327
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Waiting...But Not Quite There Yet
Wed Jul 18 2007 06:45 PM
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If the feature to the south of Brownsville, Tx. had its associated very weak surface low/trof centered a bit more offshore, it may have earned an Invest tag by now. As can be made out by zooming in (time sensitive) on this recent RGB-enhanced Visible (Loop), a bona fide lower level center of sorts has formed, but is just barely inland, now north of Tampico, Mx., and moving generally NNW, along the coast, but inland. For the better part of the last 48 hours deep convection has hugged this very weak center of lower pressure, and has pulsed higher and lower, but never really dissipated. Winds around Brownsville and much of extreme south Texas have now turned generally NE, offshore of there winds are E or ENE, and winds south of that convective vortice are generally out of the SE. Some of the low cloud features to its west in old Mexico generally moving in from the NW, W, and SW. Possibly a very weak closed circulation does exist at or very near the surface.
The ULL now centered south of Cuba is fast approaching and putting a squeeze on this feature, not only making the convection appear oblong while creating much higher shear over its eastern side, but helping nudge it along a little bit farther west, as it is also getting drawn inland by the retrograding inverted ULL over NE Mexico/E Texas. Conditions are simply not favorable for this one to pull it off. Maybe if something gives - by way of this, something currently unexpected - it has a chance to slide back offshore and/or reform offshore under less difficult conditions, but as of right now, I can make nothing out in the way of anything ready to do that "giving."
So, meanwhile, NE Mexico and extreme S Texas will be getting inundated with bands of squally heavy rain showers and thunderstorms embedded within larger expanses of lighter rain showers.
Other than that, not much out there I can see. Though I still take note that the waves rolling in from Africa have been longer-lived recently, and in general, the entire western Atlantic is not nearly as dry as it has been of late. Also, some models suggest a possible low forming off the Carolinas by a front pushing just offshore, but none that I have seen thus far indicate much if anything in the way of a warm core, there.
Edit: Surface low now very apparent in the Brownsville extended radar loop (possibly time-sensitive link). Indeed, a weak Tropical Low has formed - just barely inland -
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