Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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Re: Cosme Fighting the Shear, for Now
Wed Jul 18 2007 09:40 PM
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Cosme's trying to hang in there tonight, but only just so, making me hesitant to want to either write it off or proclaim it a minor threat. Convection went on the wane again this afternoon but is now trying to refire in the southeastern quadrant of the storm, probably closest to the warmest and most unstable air at the surface. Conditions do improve as it gets further west -- SSTs warm, low level stability goes down -- but as the NHC has hinted at, southwesterly shear starts to play a role as it nears and passes Hawaii.
Of course, that's also one of the most data sparse regions in the N. Hemisphere and I'm not sure how much to trust forecasts of subtropical upper lows at 4-5 day lead times, so I think we have to take it with a grain of salt for now. Of course, I could also be suffering from a tad bit of Ioke memories, as I remember the forecasts that had it succumbing to shear and/or recurving at about 160-170W, so bear with me if so! 
I don't see why, given what it has done the past two days, it can't at least maintain itself for another couple of days in this fashion. I'd say it has a brief window for modest restrengthening as it passes south of Hawaii -- assuming it holds together -- and then, as of now, will likely end up in a hostile environment that may ultimately bring about its demise. Still, if my memory serves me right, this would be the rare storm to make it near Hawaii on this trajectory as something more than a low cloud swirl; the storms that generally make it to this longitude are further south.
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