dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Re: Things to Watch
Thu Jul 26 2007 01:14 AM
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Time to chime in on the Gulf of Mexico from my end...I agree with Daniel, there is no evidence of a surface feature mixing down at this point with the weather north of the BoC. Evidence of that can be seen in our last remaining visible shots of the day( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html ), as well as the Shortwave imagery ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html ). The low level cloud features on the south side of the system contintine to plodalong to the west. Albeit,they may be doing that less and less with time.
To that end, this disturbed weather is at some level of interest to me. This morning, it could be noted that there may have been as many as two mid level vorticies in the BOC area. It can also be noted that there was a tropical wave passing, This evening, these disturbed areas have basically consolidated and there is an apparent level of turning in the mid levels. The mid level low is showing some evidence of looking like, walking like, and quacking like a duck at the mid levels, so something may have a chance toevolve at the surface.
Now for model support and unfavorable wind conditions. There is no model support for development, but there is modelsupport for moisturein Texas. If there is no development, Texas can expect to get wet again as the models dictate...and either way, Texas will get at least some moisture from this. However, the mid-level circulation is already showing signs of moving more to the NNE. If...and I say if...development does occur, the mid level and upper level flow would apparently favor this entity heading more towards the Noth Central or North Eastern Gulf. And shear would not be as much of a factor as a developed system would get caught in the overall flow. Shear IS a consideration in the NHC TWO because the computer models foresee the system remaining weak (not develop) and heading more to the North and North West in line with the computer models. If that does occur (which it currently appears thatitmaynot be doing that), then shear will be a factor and it will never get it's act together.
If the thunderstorms persist and the midlevel can transition toward the surface during the day tomorrow, then we may have something to watch. We shall see....
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