Things to Watch - FLHurricane.com

At this hour,2:55am EDT, I am not very impressed or alarmed with the GOM system. But I do see a GOM full of moisture... and that in itself is something to take note of.
The following are excerpts from the various Discussions from the HPC desks. The link provided for each discussions will take you to the latest discussions.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
151 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

...ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR IMPULSES WHICH THE 00Z NAM STRENGTHENS NEAR THE LA COAST AROUND F36 EARLY FRI AND F72 LATE SAT... THIS RUN APPEARS TO BE WEAKER ON AVERAGE VERSUS PAST RUNS WITH ENERGY FLOWING NWD THRU THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. 00Z/18Z/12Z NAM RUNS ALL SHOW SIMILAR SFC REFLECTIONS THRU THE PERIOD AND ARE WEAKER AT THE SFC COMPARED TO YDAYS 00Z NAM. IN THE GFS... DETAILS DIFFER EACH RUN BUT THE MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING MID LVL IMPULSES QUITE WEAK WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SFC REFLECTION.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

...YET ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING
THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. AS RESULT... AREAS ALONG COASTAL TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WILL RECEIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdspd.html

DAY1
...ACROSS TX/GULF COAST REGION...
A TREMENDOUS PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE BLOB OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SERN/SRN TX SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW POSSIBLE FEEDBACK AND HPC BACKED OFF QPF AMOUNTS A BIT DUE TO THIS AND UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP. NEEDLESS TO SAY... EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE SATURATED SOUTH TX REGION TO THE COAST.
...FL/SE COAST...
RATHER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER GIVEN DIURNALHEAT... PW VALUES RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE NATURE OF PCPN IN CONVECTION...WOULD
EXPECT SOME 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AMOUNTS ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS AND GIVEN K INDICES AROUND 30.

DAY 2-Friday
TEXAS/WESTERN GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES/DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD KEEP THE REGION MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE DETAILS CONCERNING DAY 3 REMAIN SKETCHY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TEAM UP WITH THE NEARBY UPPER CYCLONE TO
LEAD TO ORGANIZED RAINS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AROUND HOUSTON FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY 2 TIME FRAME /LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/. THEREAFTER...THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THERE.

FLORIDA...
MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR ABOVE TWO INCHES.
THIS CALLS FOR AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS
REMAIN STATIONARY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK. SPC SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD NOT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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