cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: One more thing...
Sat Jul 28 2007 03:58 PM
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Re: 98L
There is an existing surface trof running N-S through the general area with a weak low center now where 98L has been initiated. A few models have teased with development in this area. The NAM, MM5, GFS & CMC all to greater or lesser degrees, and with greater or lesser consistency. This area is not hostile to development. While steering currents currently suggest a fish spinner if it develops any further, being so close to the states and various islands, imho subsequent model runs showing tracks out to sea should be viewed suspect until a clearer picture of the nature of the feature and its environment unfolds.
In other areas, at this time, a weak surface low has pushed inland into far eastern Texas//western Louisiana, so no further development there. However, an old frontal boundary remains draped across the northern GOM, just south of the southern states, and could linger and fester a bit, and perhaps tap into a sweet spot or two when conditions there become more favorable.
There is also a weak wave train rolling off of western Africa, and if you haven't yet done so, do check out the main page for Clark's ongoing analysis of the developments there.
Edit to add coordinates of tentative Invest flight plan:
TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-066
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR BERMUDA.
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 29/1730Z
D. 30N AND 71W
E. 29/1900Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION NEAR 32N AND 69W
FOR 30/1200Z OR INVEST AT 30/1800Z.
Edited by cieldumort (Sat Jul 28 2007 06:04 PM)
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