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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: July Nearing End, Tropics Waking Up
      Sun Jul 29 2007 07:56 PM

NRL has hoisted a TCFA for 98L

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30.0N 73.5W
TO 34.6N 70.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.

2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NORTHEAST OF NASSAU,
BS HAS FORMED UNDERNEATH VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
30.0N 73.5W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1013.0 MB.
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
BEING PLACED 60NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA CAN ENHANCE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 301600Z JULY 2007.//
(LINK)



It is a bit odd that the 98L floater has been removed in light of everything else. (For now). The system appears to be slowly organizing -very- slowly, with two baby steps forward and one or one and a half baby step/s back. The combination of still difficult shear imparted mainly from the ULL to its northeast, and extratropical interaction with a preexisting trough seem to be hindering anything more at this time. 98L has a good 400 - 500 miles of acceptable SSTs ahead for possible subtropical and/or tropical development, and not an impossible atmosphere to work with.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* July Nearing End, Tropics Waking Up MikeCAdministrator Sun Jul 29 2007 07:56 PM
. * * Re: July Nearing End, Tropics Waking Up mead9536   Wed Aug 01 2007 07:54 PM
. * * Re: New Thread LoisCane   Tue Jul 31 2007 01:44 PM
. * * New Thread danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 31 2007 03:31 AM
. * * Re: id give it chances based on ships model dem05   Tue Jul 31 2007 02:37 AM
. * * Re: id give it chances based on ships model cieldumort   Tue Jul 31 2007 02:30 AM
. * * Re: id give it chances based on ships model dem05   Mon Jul 30 2007 11:18 PM
. * * Re: id give it chances based on ships model MichaelA   Mon Jul 30 2007 09:21 PM
. * * Re: id give it chances based on ships model WeatherNut   Mon Jul 30 2007 08:44 PM
. * * Re: id give it chances based on ships model doug   Mon Jul 30 2007 07:53 PM
. * * Re: id give it chances based on ships model LoisCane   Mon Jul 30 2007 05:47 PM
. * * Re: id give it chances based on ships model Rich B   Mon Jul 30 2007 05:14 PM
. * * Re: id give it chances based on ships model Steve H1   Mon Jul 30 2007 04:27 PM
. * * Re: 99L in Central Atlantic D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Mon Jul 30 2007 04:24 PM
. * * Re: id give it chances based on ships model Rabbit   Mon Jul 30 2007 03:59 PM
. * * id give it chances based on ships model LoisCane   Mon Jul 30 2007 03:51 PM
. * * Re: 99L in Central Atlantic CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Jul 30 2007 03:30 PM
. * * Re: 99L in Central Atlantic nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Jul 30 2007 02:08 PM
. * * Re: 99L in Central Atlantic Ron Basso   Mon Jul 30 2007 02:03 PM
. * * Re: GOM Low? nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Jul 30 2007 01:22 PM
. * * Re: GOM Low? cieldumort   Mon Jul 30 2007 06:14 AM
. * * Re: GOM Low? dem05   Mon Jul 30 2007 04:41 AM
. * * GOM Low? danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 30 2007 03:45 AM
. * * Re: July Nearing End, Tropics Waking Up cieldumort   Sun Jul 29 2007 07:56 PM
. * * Re: July Nearing End, Tropics Waking Up stormchazer   Sun Jul 29 2007 05:27 PM
. * * Re: July Nearing End, Tropics Waking Up dem05   Sun Jul 29 2007 02:06 PM

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