dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Re: id give it chances based on ships model
Mon Jul 30 2007 11:18 PM
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98L is better organized as a surface feature this afternoon/evening...However, the storm activity around the center remains limited. One good long burst of thunderstorms around the center could push this over the edge and get it classified...but the upper and mid level flow does remain unfavorable for development and/or a lot of deep cenvective development around the center for extended periods of time. If 98L does push over the threshold, it will likely be on a subtropical level as satellite imagery depicts mid/upper level troughing close to the center and the front will be closing in. Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html (Don't forget to click on the HDW-mid and HDW-high radio buttons on top of the image). I'll give it a 20% shot (up from 10% last night) due to the increased organization/presentation of the low level structure throughout the afternoon. Otherwise, outside of the front, 98L will likely pass the northern extent of the Gulf Stream by the time it reaches the same latitude as New Jersey (around 39 degrees north), after that, the chances will be nada. Will be interesting to see if a suubtropical storm can fire off from this one, but the odds are against it.
As for 99L...I will bite my tounge as I did not expect to see this kind of activity along the ITCZ region as of last night. It was interesting/surprising to see something a little better organized down there today...and some of you may agree with that. Mean time, 99L needs to get a lot more thunderstorm activity going. Especially considering that it is in the deep tropics (at lower latitudes, strong thunderstorm cloud tops grow to a higher altitude), so at this point, there needs to be a deeper flare-up of thunderstorms to really get things going. With favorable conditions as we see here, that is definately possible and the expectation of slow development is not unreasonable.
Interestingly, even though the thunderstorms have not grown/become stronger around 99L, the low level structure of 99L has been improving. Thoughout the day, easterly winds to the north of it, northerly winds to the west of it, and westerly winds to the south of the system were readily apparent at the lower levels (Low level cloud motion around the periphery). What was not apparent this afternoon on the satellite was a southerly wind on the east side of 99L. As we have moved into the evening, the last visible frames did indicate that there may have been some north winds (versus the westward cloud motion I had been seeing through the afternoon along the ITCZ). The shortwave continues to echo that the eastern side of 99L may be showing signs of closing off a circulation (at the low cloud levels). 99L may be starting to break free of the ITCZ this evening...Link to Shortwave loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
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