CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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TD-8E Develops, Heads West, Future Uncertain
Tue Jul 31 2007 11:53 PM
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Although being sheared and having its convection confined to the western semi-circle, the NHC nonetheless, based on satellite intensity estimates of 35 Kts., decided to upgrade the wave / low to Tropical Depression status.
While the 20 Kts. of NE shear persists, there is a certain disagreement among the models as to how this shear will evolve with time.
And the intensity forecast will depend highly on the degree of shear as TD-8E heads westward. NHC currently has it intensifying gradually, and crossing over into the Central Pacific basin as a strengthening 45 Kt. Tropical Storm in a couple days. If this verifies, then this storm will be closely watched by those of us living in the Islands.
On the other hand, TD-8E is heading into a rather dry mid and upper level environment, and, if the shear persists or becomes a little stronger, then TD-8E might well be short lived, and succumb to a hostile environment.
The next day or so will either make or break the depression in its' bid to become 'Erick'.
Tonights' diurnal (daily) convective maximum cycle will be interesting to see if 8E can survive the shear and get its' LLC under the strongest convection and not lagging behind it, as has been the case so far. Keep you posted.
PS: More on Typhoon Usagi later, but I see it's already up to 115 Kts., with a large, cloud-filled eye. Have a look/see for yourself:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom.../track_vis/dmsp
More later ...
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