cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in Atlantic No Threat to the US
Tue Jul 31 2007 10:59 PM
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Chantal is becoming extratropical now. There was a good burst of deep convective banding about the center, including the southern half which had been rather dry earlier, but this is also giving up the ghost as a dry slot wraps around from the west and south, and strong upper level winds continue to impart a lot of shear while she is already passing over waters well below 70 degrees fahrenheit. It is off to become a potent extratropical Chantal, perhaps even attaining hurricane-force as an ET.
The low to the south of Chantal is still quite wrapped up in the fronts, but has acquired some slight tropical characteristics. This remains a bit of a long shot, but it is noteworthy that the area from about 26N/75W up to 38N/67W does exhibit some decent lower level vorticity. Ship report out from 32N/70W at 00Z out of the WSW at 35 knots, and pressures as low as 29.64. Might be a one-off, or even inaccurate, but worth making note of.
Shear in the area probably remains its largest inhibitor. There is, however, a sweet spot in there already, and as the system accelerates to the northeast, net effective shear could come down. Again, a long shot, and not a threat to the lower 48, regardless.
On the tail end of this frontal boundary, it appears that it is in the process of leaving a trof draped across the upper GOM. With upper winds aloft turning anticyclonic, and shear coming way down from levels most often seen over the past several months, as Dem5 and others have already pointed out, this could become a region that we really have to watch. After all, anything which forms there will be 100% land-locked.
Also possibly something of concern during the course of the first week in August is the already invest-tagged "99L", about to start bringing rainy weather to the Lesser Antilles. It is entirely conceivable, based not only on climatology, but also on the nocturnal enhancement taking place tonight, that as 99L approaches the islands and the winds sort of slow down and thunderstorms bunch up and start to coalesce some more there, that it crosses over into a numberable system, as early as within the next 24 hours. Beyond that, it enters the eastern Caribbean "graveyard" and will be left to do some battle with that environment before perhaps finding another slightly favorable region further west.
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