cieldumort
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Posts: 2307
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
Thu Aug 02 2007 04:20 PM
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I think the odds are fairly good that recon finds a reasonable LLC today. Late last night I was able to find the (or one of the) old LLC, again, near 12N 61W. It was a tight little vortex, but very small, and weak. I believe it was Monday overnight when I was last able to discern a legit LLC. The pulsing nature of the convection up until today has not allowed any of them to take. Flareups at night, only giving up the ghosts come daybreak. The wave itself became the dominant player, and raced ahead.
Which is the interesting part. It appears to have been such a vigorous wave as it crossed the Lesser Antilles (wind gust to 58 mph in Barbados within one of its squalls, for example) that it quite possibly shoved away a good deal of the dry air ahead of it. Convection started increasing during the overnight. While we were sleeping, it would now appear that either that same tiny, weak LLC has nuzzled under the deep convection, or a new LLC has been attempting to reform.
The big changes I perceive today include
1) Convection continued to improve during daylight, rather than dissolve, although might be either waning or pulsing again at this time.
2) Noteworthy inflow feeding in from the N,NE,ENE,E, ESE, SE & S, and only a very limited amount of dry air ingestion off of South America. This is a bit unusual, and promising for further development.
3) Another impulse ahead of 99L, closer to Panama, has also served to limit the previously dry environment.
I might guess they have a slightly better than 50-50 shot of closing a surface low off somewhere, around or between 13N 67W and 14.5N 68W.
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