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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
Sat Aug 04 2007 04:23 AM

11PM Central Sat midnight Eastern.

After watching the Wave 99L perk up again all afternoon I feel confident in saying tonight that a renewed LLC is forming. Indeed 99L is also back up on NRL at this hour, back at its earlier upgraded max winds of 30 knots (estimated from when it was merely a vigorous open wave again)

I place the center of 99L now at roughly 15N 81W. Based on my own experience using the Dvorak technique, I would submit that it is running a CI of at least 1.5... and probably getting closer to 2.0 99L looks to me to be quite possibly on the precipice of being a legitimate depression at this hour. Interestingly, it would appear that it is on a fairly steady trajectory for central America - possibly to cross over into the Eastern Pacific.

If 99L continues this current trend for another 6 to 12 hours, *and before making landfall*, I believe it will be upgraded to number 4 in the Atlantic, possibly to oddly enough earn a number/name in the East Pac, should it stay on that course and remain enough intact. I think there possibly is a very small chance that it veers more to the NW, and could yet enter the southwestern GOM, and an ever slimmer chance that it veers even more to the NNW than NW. But if I had to place bets, I would put the greatest odds on a landfall somewhere around the border of Nicaragua and Honduras, to as far north as Belize.

The last official words from NHC are from the 10:30 EDT TWO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HINDERED DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO LAND.

Will be interesting to see what they have to say at 2AM.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	MikeC	Sat Aug 04 2007 04:23 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	weather_wise911	Sat Aug 04 2007 04:54 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	scottsvb	Sat Aug 04 2007 05:09 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	nc_tropical_wx79	Sat Aug 04 2007 04:40 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	allan	Sat Aug 04 2007 04:28 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	cieldumort	Sat Aug 04 2007 04:23 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	OUSHAWN	Fri Aug 03 2007 05:18 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	cieldumort	Fri Aug 03 2007 05:44 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	scottsvb	Fri Aug 03 2007 05:34 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 03 2007 05:33 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	allan	Fri Aug 03 2007 04:30 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 03 2007 03:27 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Clark	Fri Aug 03 2007 03:00 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Storm Cooper	Fri Aug 03 2007 12:51 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Hugh	Fri Aug 03 2007 12:11 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 02 2007 10:44 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	ElizabethH	Thu Aug 02 2007 08:06 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	La Nimo	Thu Aug 02 2007 07:41 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	rmbjoe1954	Thu Aug 02 2007 07:28 PM
cieldumort	Robert	Thu Aug 02 2007 05:54 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Texas Cane Tracker	Thu Aug 02 2007 05:51 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Bloodstar	Thu Aug 02 2007 05:26 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	doug	Thu Aug 02 2007 04:27 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	cieldumort	Thu Aug 02 2007 04:20 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	doug	Thu Aug 02 2007 03:54 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	scottsvb	Thu Aug 02 2007 03:48 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	doug	Thu Aug 02 2007 03:27 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Robert	Thu Aug 02 2007 03:23 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	bigbelly	Thu Aug 02 2007 02:50 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Hugh	Thu Aug 02 2007 11:55 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Rabbit	Thu Aug 02 2007 04:05 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Hugh	Thu Aug 02 2007 02:22 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	allan	Thu Aug 02 2007 02:12 AM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Hugh	Wed Aug 01 2007 11:13 PM
Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch	Bloodstar	Wed Aug 01 2007 10:37 PM

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