F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: something finally
      Fri Aug 10 2007 05:35 AM

Following Hank's post with this morning's Model Run update.
Excerpt from the run.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
107 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007(edited~danielw)

VALID AUG 10/0000 UTC THRU AUG 13/1200 UTC

LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...
THE NAM HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEMS EXPECTED TRACK OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS... THOUGH ITS 09/12Z RUN WAS A STRONG OUTLIER.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE RETROGRADING THROUGH
THE AREA WHICH IT HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS.
THE GFS IS WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SURFACE PATTERN... BUT APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKENING THE PROGRESSION OF ITS 850 HPA REFLECTION OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS... SHOWING MORE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAN A SURFACE LOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...
THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST PIECE OF GUIDANCE WITH THIS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW...
WITH THE CANADIAN THE SECOND STRONGEST AND THE OTHER GUIDANCE A BIT WEAKER.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO EMMINATE FROM THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME.
THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY... WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING THE MOST NORTHERN SOLUTION. SINCE THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE NORMALLY TOO BULLISH ON TROPICAL LOWS... WILL BUY THE CONSENSUS DELAYED SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING... NOT PREFERRING A
SURFACE LOW UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...OR THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
FROM THEN ONWARD...WE WILL BE STICKING WITH WHAT WAS AGREED UPON DURING THE THURSDAY NOON CONFERENCE CALL WITH NHC WITH REASONABLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FEATURE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
DAY 7.
SEE THE PREEPD ISSUED BY 09Z AND THE RELATED MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONCERNING THE MEDIUM RANGE FUTURE OF THIS FEATURE. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK/TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC CONCERNING THE CURRENT STATUS OF THIS SYSTEM.
SEE THE QPF DISCUSSION ISSUED BY 09Z CONCERNING POTENTIAL RAINFALL IMPACT ON
THE KEYS/SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THIS SYSTEM.

All of HPC Discussions

NHC Main Page

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* A Brief Lull MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 10 2007 05:35 AM
. * * Re: Weak weekend doug   Sat Aug 11 2007 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Close to home,,, Random Chaos   Sat Aug 11 2007 01:15 PM
. * * Close to home,,, Beach   Sat Aug 11 2007 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Weak weekend Random Chaos   Sat Aug 11 2007 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Weak weekend Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 11 2007 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Weak weekend craigm   Sat Aug 11 2007 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Weak weekend Random Chaos   Sat Aug 11 2007 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Weak weekend Clark   Sat Aug 11 2007 01:16 AM
. * * Weak weekend danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 10 2007 08:13 PM
. * * Re: something finally Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 10 2007 03:51 PM
. * * Re: something finally madmumbler   Fri Aug 10 2007 03:34 PM
. * * Re: something finally Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 10 2007 12:06 PM
. * * Re: something finally OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 10 2007 09:48 AM
. * * Re: something finally ElizabethH   Fri Aug 10 2007 09:43 AM
. * * Re: something finally danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 10 2007 05:35 AM
. * * something finally HanKFranK   Thu Aug 09 2007 07:50 PM
. * * Re: A Brief Lull Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 08 2007 01:49 PM
. * * Active areas rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 07 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: 35W 10N? Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 07 2007 05:59 PM
. * * 35W 10N? Bloodstar   Tue Aug 07 2007 05:45 PM
. * * Re: A Brief Lull madmumbler   Tue Aug 07 2007 01:37 PM
. * * Re: A Brief Lull HanKFranK   Mon Aug 06 2007 05:41 PM
. * * Re: A Brief Lull Steve H1   Mon Aug 06 2007 04:25 PM
. * * Lesser Antilles Wave danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 05 2007 02:15 PM
. * * Re: A Brief Lull GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 05 2007 11:19 AM
. * * Re: A Brief Lull allan   Sun Aug 05 2007 08:06 AM
. * * Re: A Brief Lull cieldumort   Sat Aug 04 2007 10:17 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 237 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 16725

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center