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90L crossing over Florida with flooding rains, strong winds and brief tornadoes/spouts. Next week eyes turn to W Gulf in active June pattern
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 288 (Idalia) , Major: 288 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 288 (Idalia) Major: 288 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie
      Sun Aug 12 2007 12:36 PM

I know the site's official bet on 90L is 5.5 out of 10 that it develops. I'd give it 8.5. I'm not sure where it's going to get classified, but I think it's probably going to happen. GFS long range has been all over the place over the last 3 days with threat areas. It's speculated everything from a fish spinner, to coastal NC, to GA/SC, to South Florida, to the Panhandle, to New Orleans, to Houston, to Mexico (per the 06Z GFS)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/index_pcp_s_loop.shtml

Western Pacific teleconnections (TD #09) would agree with strong ridging into the SEUS 10 days down the line. That's something to watch to see if it becomes an eventual hit on Taiwan or the Chinese mainland (telegraphing downstream ridging 7-10 days in the West Atlantic).

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0907.gif

Gonna be an interesting few weeks. I completely agree with Clark and other mets who beileve that once this season gets going, it's going to be fast and furious.

FWIW, Accuweather's 8/07 video update said they were still calling for 6 U.S. landfalls (4 canes - 1 or 2 major, 2 Tropical Storms). We haven't seen much yet, so if those guys are right, 2007 will be remembered for a long time to come much like 2002, 2004 and 2005 have been thus far in the decade.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Two Things to Watch and Flossie MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 12 2007 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Random Chaos   Mon Aug 13 2007 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie allan   Mon Aug 13 2007 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie madmumbler   Mon Aug 13 2007 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie cieldumort   Mon Aug 13 2007 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Hugh   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Random Chaos   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:26 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Old Sailor   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie WeatherNut   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Random Chaos   Mon Aug 13 2007 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 13 2007 01:24 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie weather_wise911   Mon Aug 13 2007 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie nc_tropical_wx79   Mon Aug 13 2007 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 13 2007 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Storm Cooper   Sun Aug 12 2007 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie hurricaneguy   Sun Aug 12 2007 11:26 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 12 2007 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Random Chaos   Sun Aug 12 2007 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 12 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Random Chaos   Sun Aug 12 2007 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 12 2007 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Ron Basso   Sun Aug 12 2007 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 12 2007 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Steve   Sun Aug 12 2007 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 12 2007 06:12 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 12 2007 03:45 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie West FL Jess   Sun Aug 12 2007 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Clark   Sun Aug 12 2007 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 12 2007 01:42 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Beaumont, TX   Sun Aug 12 2007 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie Old Sailor   Sun Aug 12 2007 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie HCW   Sat Aug 11 2007 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie stormchazer   Sat Aug 11 2007 08:47 PM

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