Flossie continues to impress and amaze.
Although it's sustained winds are down just a tad, back to 115 Kts., (132 mph) it is still maintaining it's minimum Cat 4 ranking.
It's eyewall temps on animated IR imagery has pulsed back and forth for the last 6 to 8 hours, but now appears to have entered a significant, sustained cooling in the past 2 or 3 hours as I write this, about 3am Hawaii time. The coldest temps, as shown on IR loops, are once again spreading, and the short, rainband-like features again sprouting and spinning like a pinwheel rapidly about the eyewall before merging into it. Interesting to watch the morphology of the inner core convection.
>> "HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. FLOSSIE HAS A VERY WARM WELL DEFINED 20 NM DIAMETER EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE SYSTEM ALSO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A REMARKABLE OUTFLOW."
The outflow continues to be excellent and just improving more, which may be why Flossie is at least holding its' own for now, or even gaining just a bit more.
>> "THERE CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WOBBLES OF THE EYE THAT ARE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ..."
Looking at several microwave overpasses from earlier in the day, I hazard to speculate that Flossie has just undergone an eyewall replacement cycle, which may be related to the "very significant wobbles of the eye", and may be putting on its' 'final harrah', its' last burst of strengthening before the slow weakening commences. Or maybe it's just holding it's own for the time being. We'll find out with the next advisory.
>> "THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT THE MOMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE FUTURE PATH OF FLOSSIE. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE MOST HOSTILE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO IMPLY FUTURE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE."
Thankfully, the blessed shear will once again come to Hawaii's rescue and knock down Flossie from an extremely dangerous major hurricane to tropical storm status by the time it makes its' closest approach to the Islands. Let's all just pray that the shear arrives and will be as strong as forecast.
Still, it's just rather disconcerting that the most recent plot (track) shows Flossie as a 70 Kt. hurricane just offshore of the SE coast of the Big Island. Certainly, there is going to be huge surf on those coastlines, with the potential for property damage and beach errosen, if this verifies. Let's hope it doesn't.
>> "ALL THOSE WHO ARE FOLLOWING FLOSSIE ARE URGED NOT FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK OF THE CALM EYE. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE EYE WALL SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE EXTEND FAR BEYOND THIS LINE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE OF FLOSSIE MAY PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...IT COULD STILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK ...
... KEEP IN MIND THAT OUR ERRORS IN FORECASTING INTENSITY ARE STILL LARGE...ESPECIALLY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND BEYOND."
The Media Machine is really going to crank up over the next few days, and this developing storm situation will be sure to have plenty of National News exposure if Flossie continues to pose a significant danger to the Islands.
I've heard that the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Squadron is sending 3 or 4 C-130's all the way to Hawaii to set up a base of operations to begin regular 6 hourly fixes into Flossie beginning on Monday. That says something in itself. That certainly adds to the gravity of the situation. Stay tuned for this ride!
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Hurricane Flossie Maintaining Cat 4 Strength
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