MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie
Sun Aug 12 2007 07:42 PM
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trying to avoid overstating 90L, since we did somewhat with 99L earlier this month, but I don't think it'll make depression status today. The center is a bit too exposed for that, maybe tomorrow afternoon.
The model runs this afternoon are interesting, the best case this time is the European model, which dissipates the system (I'm hoping for this one). However, that particular model isn't all that great with tropical cyclone development.
Most other models have gone west into the Eastern Caribbean, CMC puts it as a category 3 hurricane.near the leewards, GFDL and HWRF predicts a category 2 hurricane, GFS keeps it lower as a tropical storm, NOGAPS isn't picking up on it at all, and the UKMet keeps it a tropical storm as it nears the Leewards.
I think with the fast forward motion it won't have the chance to really develop into too strong a ssytem, so I'd go with a high Tropical Storm or Category 1 Hurricane toward the end of the week. The current speed of the models predicts it getting near the Lesser Antilles around Thursday. Still, I hate going too much into systems that have not formed into tropical entities yet.
I don't really take all that much stock in the models, I do agree with the current westward trend, at least until Wednesday or so. I'm not buying into a lot of the high end intesity forecasts, and rather hope that it just falls apart. Relative shear is ok for the system at the current rate of motion to keep itself together at least as it crosses westward.
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