cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie
Mon Aug 13 2007 04:19 AM
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Just a couple of things to add
First, to my way of sizing systems up, 90L has been a tropical cyclone for the last 12 hours. NHC loves to go conservative on these puppies when they are well-out in the Atlantic with little, if any, data available to verify their suspicions. I do suspect we will have TD 4 up today, and probably as early as 5AM, baring some unforeseen major reversal of fortune for 90L.
Secondly, of note, an interesting little surface spinner, albeit a touch dry, around 10N 47W getting little mention anywhere, but might be worth keeping an eye on. It is that time of year. If it develops some deeper convection before running into the east Caribbean graveyard, I wouldn't be surprised to see it invest tagged.
Closer to home at the moment, if no further development comes of the mess in the western and central Caribbean, someone or someones is/are still likely to get a slug or two of really juicy tropical moisture. Pressures are falling a touch down there, and waters are very warm, but primarily the upper air environment continues to be hostile. However, as NHC notes, that may slowly change over the next few days. There appears to be two regions where some surface cyclogenesis could occur in there.
Lastly, another rather impressive wave is rolling off Africa right behind 90L.
All things considered, it wouldn't hurt to have Flossie scurry off to the south of the islands so that flights can be ready to go here, as well. Count 'em - four features probably worth monitoring now.
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