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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland

Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching
Mon Aug 13 2007 10:35 AM

Aboz,

Essentially we have a system growing out in the Atlantic. It's too soon to know what it will do, but almost all the models are strengthening it and taking it toward the US. It is still a week away from being a threat to the Windward islands. I wouldn't concern yourself too much until it's closer to the US.

Some models develop it into a strong storm heading into the gulf, others send it fish-spinning off into the north Atlantic. It is just too soon to know what it will do.

Models tend to be inaccurate before a system hits at least TS strength, and track is always inaccurate with tropical systems. I'd wait a few days, see what it's doing, and be ready in case it is a threat.

Also, welcome to the site! If you have questions about what the models mean, go ask them over in the (I'm guessing Ask/Tell or Forecast Lounge), rather than in the news thread.

-----

OUSHAWN:

Take a look at the vorticity data for track. It's too weak for the pressure contours to pic up on on most model sources.

For instance, look near the Yucatan tip: http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 13 2007 10:42 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and Watching the Southeast Gulf	MikeC	Mon Aug 13 2007 10:35 AM
Re: Herbert box	OUSHAWN	Tue Aug 14 2007 09:42 AM
Herbert box	ftlaudbob	Tue Aug 14 2007 09:27 AM
Re: The Gulf	OUSHAWN	Tue Aug 14 2007 09:18 AM
Re: The Gulf	BLTizzle	Tue Aug 14 2007 02:10 AM
The Gulf	Clark	Tue Aug 14 2007 02:04 AM
Re: Yucatan Low	Rabbit	Tue Aug 14 2007 01:28 AM
Re: Yucatan Low	Storm Cooper	Mon Aug 13 2007 08:55 PM
Re: Yucatan Low	craigm	Mon Aug 13 2007 08:47 PM
Re: trouble	WeatherNut	Mon Aug 13 2007 08:41 PM
Re: Yucatan Low	hurricaneguy	Mon Aug 13 2007 07:45 PM
Re: trouble	OUSHAWN	Mon Aug 13 2007 07:01 PM
Re: trouble	Ed in Va	Mon Aug 13 2007 06:35 PM
Re: trouble	LoisCane	Mon Aug 13 2007 06:28 PM
trouble	HanKFranK	Mon Aug 13 2007 06:08 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and Watching the Southeast Gulf	Clark	Mon Aug 13 2007 05:41 PM
Re: Yucatan Low	OUSHAWN	Mon Aug 13 2007 03:35 PM
Re: Yucatan Low	danielw	Mon Aug 13 2007 03:31 PM
Re: Yucatan Low	OUSHAWN	Mon Aug 13 2007 03:24 PM
Re: 90L	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 13 2007 02:51 PM
Re: Yucatan Low	scottsvb	Mon Aug 13 2007 02:47 PM
Re: Yucatan Low	Storm Hunter	Mon Aug 13 2007 02:09 PM
Re: Yucatan Low	OUSHAWN	Mon Aug 13 2007 12:53 PM
Yucatan Low	danielw	Mon Aug 13 2007 12:28 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching	wxman007	Mon Aug 13 2007 12:15 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching	MikeC	Mon Aug 13 2007 11:52 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching	wxman007	Mon Aug 13 2007 11:27 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching	Random Chaos	Mon Aug 13 2007 11:24 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching	madmumbler	Mon Aug 13 2007 11:10 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic	madmumbler	Mon Aug 13 2007 11:08 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching	LoisCane	Mon Aug 13 2007 10:47 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching	MikeC	Mon Aug 13 2007 10:42 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic	twizted sizter	Mon Aug 13 2007 10:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching	Random Chaos	Mon Aug 13 2007 10:35 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic	LoisCane	Mon Aug 13 2007 10:34 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic	OUSHAWN	Mon Aug 13 2007 10:31 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching	aboz56	Mon Aug 13 2007 10:28 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic	Random Chaos	Mon Aug 13 2007 10:23 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic	madmumbler	Mon Aug 13 2007 10:17 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic	twizted sizter	Mon Aug 13 2007 10:09 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic	twizted sizter	Mon Aug 13 2007 09:53 AM

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