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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and Watching the Southeast Gulf
      Mon Aug 13 2007 09:41 PM

Not a whole lot to add at this time for either TD 4 or 91L. TD 4 is racing along to the west in the open Atlantic, having a hard time bringing itself together considering its fast forward speed. There's a bit of stable air getting ingested on the NE side of the storm, further helping to keep it somewhat lopsided/asymmetric today. It should slow down and enter a more favorable environment as it nears 45-50W; from there, steady intensification looks somewhat likely. Model guidance has shifted a tad north today in the 3-5 day time period as the subtropical ridge doesn't look to be quite as strong as initially suggested, but still the 5p NHC track toward the southern end of those models looks to be pretty good (as usual). Beyond that, it all depends on where it actually is once it gets to the Islands...so the best advice I can give is "stay tuned."

91L is closer to home and a bit more pressing of an issue. It's slowly become better organized over the past 24hr or so, even if it is still somewhat broad. If it develops, it'll be one of those storms that found the right point along the east side of an upper low where it could develop. Not that often it occurs into the peak of the season in the Gulf, but nothing says it can't either. Lower Texas looks like the best bet for the moisture from this one whether it forms or not. Some of the higher-resolution and less-reliable models are picking up on it and developing it into at least a TS by the time it gets there; that's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but a lot will be determined by how organized it becomes in the next day I think. More than that, it's a rainfall event for the lower part of the state -- and for most there, not necessarily a needed rainfall event -- however the rain could be used much further north and east, though it unfortunately looks like they are going to get missed by the bulk of it all.

And, of course, there's Flossie. Haven't been following it enough to give much more than a couple of general impressions on it, but it's almost the textbook definition of an annular hurricane right now, a fact that is probably helping maintain its intensity over slightly cooler than ideal waters. Mostly, I just hope that the continual forecasts of shear + a continued WNW movement pan out in some fashion given my memories from Ioke last year. I don't think we'll see another Ioke out of this one, though!

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and Watching the Southeast Gulf MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 13 2007 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Herbert box OUSHAWN   Tue Aug 14 2007 01:42 PM
. * * Herbert box ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 14 2007 01:27 PM
. * * Re: The Gulf OUSHAWN   Tue Aug 14 2007 01:18 PM
. * * Re: The Gulf BLTizzle   Tue Aug 14 2007 06:10 AM
. * * The Gulf Clark   Tue Aug 14 2007 06:04 AM
. * * Re: Yucatan Low Rabbit   Tue Aug 14 2007 05:28 AM
. * * Re: Yucatan Low Storm Cooper   Tue Aug 14 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Yucatan Low craigm   Tue Aug 14 2007 12:47 AM
. * * Re: trouble WeatherNut   Tue Aug 14 2007 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Yucatan Low hurricaneguy   Mon Aug 13 2007 11:45 PM
. * * Re: trouble OUSHAWN   Mon Aug 13 2007 11:01 PM
. * * Re: trouble Ed in Va   Mon Aug 13 2007 10:35 PM
. * * Re: trouble LoisCane   Mon Aug 13 2007 10:28 PM
. * * trouble HanKFranK   Mon Aug 13 2007 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and Watching the Southeast Gulf Clark   Mon Aug 13 2007 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Yucatan Low OUSHAWN   Mon Aug 13 2007 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Yucatan Low danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 13 2007 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Yucatan Low OUSHAWN   Mon Aug 13 2007 07:24 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 13 2007 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Yucatan Low scottsvb   Mon Aug 13 2007 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Yucatan Low Storm Hunter   Mon Aug 13 2007 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Yucatan Low OUSHAWN   Mon Aug 13 2007 04:53 PM
. * * Yucatan Low danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 13 2007 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching wxman007   Mon Aug 13 2007 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 13 2007 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching wxman007   Mon Aug 13 2007 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching Random Chaos   Mon Aug 13 2007 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching madmumbler   Mon Aug 13 2007 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic madmumbler   Mon Aug 13 2007 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching LoisCane   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic twizted sizter   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching Random Chaos   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic LoisCane   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic OUSHAWN   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic and West Caribbean Watching aboz56   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic Random Chaos   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic madmumbler   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic twizted sizter   Mon Aug 13 2007 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Far Eastern Atlantic twizted sizter   Mon Aug 13 2007 01:53 PM

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