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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
coupla things
      Tue Aug 14 2007 10:35 PM

dean is stronger than the advisories are saying, i'd reckon. the low clouds from the exposed eastern side were whipping around pretty good earlier. this afternoon the convection has stopped bursting as strong, but it'll pick back up in an hr or a few. no reason not to. models trending stronger with the ridging, but i'm thinking they're underplaying the later storm and how much it will be reacting to whatever ridge fracture is off the east coast. don't think it's going to stay in the caribbean and not get into the western atlantic, i mean. its faster movement means the threat window for a u.s. hit would be 21-23 august, for florida at least. it's going to run into stuff on the way, wherever in the u.s. it might end up going.
the gulf thing... interesting that they chose not to tag it a depression. if it's a borderline system i would have erred on the side of classifying it. obviously a closed center, obviously some deep convection. i get that it's not a tight center and all... but this thing has the kind of upper support that will cause it to strengthen very quickly once it gets together. don't see the advantage on not putting watches up for the texas coast now as opposed to 10 pm cdt or in a special advisory, or whenever. but yeah, it is marginal. just the same, odds extremely high that it's erin tomorrow.
nuff for now.
HF 2235z14august

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 14 2007 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf sharkman   Thu Aug 16 2007 12:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf Thunderbird12   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:40 PM
. * * Re: forward speed allan   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf Ricreig   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf native   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:37 PM
. * * forward speed SeaMule   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf h2ocean   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf LisaC   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf stevie   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf madmumbler   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf Hugh   Wed Aug 15 2007 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf WeatherNLU   Wed Aug 15 2007 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf WeatherNLU   Wed Aug 15 2007 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Tropical Depression 5 Forms in Gulf cieldumort   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Dean Clark   Wed Aug 15 2007 03:42 AM
. * * Re: Dean MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:50 AM
. * * Re: Dean Rabbit   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Dean OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Dean OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Dean cieldumort   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:10 AM
. * * Re: Dean OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 02:04 AM
. * * Re: coupla things wxman007   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:59 AM
. * * Re: coupla things CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Re: coupla things Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:47 AM
. * * Re: coupla things twizted sizter   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:42 AM
. * * Re: Dean WeatherNLU   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:41 AM
. * * Re: coupla things Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:41 AM
. * * Dean Thunderbird12   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:38 AM
. * * Re: coupla things Old Sailor   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:32 AM
. * * Re: The Hebert Box Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:15 AM
. * * Re: coupla things Fla. native in Ala.   Wed Aug 15 2007 01:13 AM
. * * Re: The Hebert Box Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:52 AM
. * * Re: The Hebert Box Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:42 AM
. * * Re: The Hebert Box OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:39 AM
. * * Re: The Hebert Box Hugh   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:39 AM
. * * Re: The Hebert Box Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Preparedness CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Preparedness MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:21 AM
. * * Re: The Hebert Box Hugh   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:14 AM
. * * Re: The Hebert Box ftlaudbob   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Preparedness tweather   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:07 AM
. * * Re: The Hebert Box Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:06 AM
. * * Re: The Hebert Box WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Aug 15 2007 12:00 AM
. * * Preparedness wxman007   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:50 PM
. * * Re: coupla things Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also Beaumont, TX   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:40 PM
. * * The Hebert Box rmbjoe1954   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:28 PM
. * * Re: coupla things madmumbler   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:20 PM
. * * Re: coupla things Hugh   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:17 PM
. * * Re: coupla things richisurfs   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:17 PM
. * * Re: coupla things madmumbler   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:13 PM
. * * Re: coupla things StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:13 PM
. * * Re: coupla things Hugh   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:09 PM
. * * Re: coupla things StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:08 PM
. * * Re: coupla things Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:05 PM
. * * Re: coupla things StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 14 2007 11:04 PM
. * * Re: coupla things Valandil   Tue Aug 14 2007 10:57 PM
. * * Re: coupla things Random Chaos   Tue Aug 14 2007 10:53 PM
. * * Re: coupla things StrmTrckrMiami   Tue Aug 14 2007 10:46 PM
. * * coupla things HanKFranK   Tue Aug 14 2007 10:35 PM
. * * 91L Rich B   Tue Aug 14 2007 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Dean OUSHAWN   Tue Aug 14 2007 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 14 2007 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Dean stormchazer   Tue Aug 14 2007 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean allan   Tue Aug 14 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Tue Aug 14 2007 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Dean stormchazer   Tue Aug 14 2007 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Dean OUSHAWN   Tue Aug 14 2007 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean OUSHAWN   Tue Aug 14 2007 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean OUSHAWN   Tue Aug 14 2007 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 14 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean Valandil   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Get ready for #5... Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Get ready for #5... Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Get ready for #5... OUSHAWN   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Get ready for #5... OUSHAWN   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Get ready for #5... Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean and model tracks... ElizabethH   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Get ready for #5... Random Chaos   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Dean and model tracks... OUSHAWN   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Dean and model tracks... Random Chaos   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean and model tracks... Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Get ready for #5... allan   Tue Aug 14 2007 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Get ready for #5... Old Sailor   Tue Aug 14 2007 06:57 PM
. * * Get ready for #5... Clark   Tue Aug 14 2007 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean and model tracks... Clark   Tue Aug 14 2007 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Dean and model tracks... AdvAutoBob   Tue Aug 14 2007 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Hey Hull... OUSHAWN   Tue Aug 14 2007 06:24 PM
. * * Re: Hey Hull... javlin   Tue Aug 14 2007 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Dean and model tracks... native   Tue Aug 14 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Hey Hull... Kissimmee   Tue Aug 14 2007 05:46 PM
. * * 91L and recon Rich B   Tue Aug 14 2007 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean and model tracks... AdvAutoBob   Tue Aug 14 2007 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Hey Hull... javlin   Tue Aug 14 2007 05:02 PM
. * * Hey Hull... Steve   Tue Aug 14 2007 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also scottsvb   Tue Aug 14 2007 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also Random Chaos   Tue Aug 14 2007 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also Steve H1   Tue Aug 14 2007 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also Random Chaos   Tue Aug 14 2007 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also LisaC   Tue Aug 14 2007 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also Random Chaos   Tue Aug 14 2007 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also LisaC   Tue Aug 14 2007 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also hullphoto   Tue Aug 14 2007 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also Rabbit   Tue Aug 14 2007 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also Beaumont, TX   Tue Aug 14 2007 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also OUSHAWN   Tue Aug 14 2007 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also Random Chaos   Tue Aug 14 2007 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Dean Forms in East Atlantic, Still Watching Gulf Also allan   Tue Aug 14 2007 02:01 PM

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