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The broad Gulf area is now up to 70/70% for development while the Atlantic area is 10/30% for development. Neither are marked as an invest area yet, but the Gulf may be tagged later today. Texas should watch the Gulf area for a large rain event. Atlantic is FL through the Carolinas depending on how soon (if at all) the system develops, sooner implies further north.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
      Fri Aug 17 2007 12:08 AM

Well, I don't have a hard pat answer for your question at this time, and I would really like to give credit to Clark's post forgiving me this theory...so if I happen to go astray/wrong, I hope he sets me straight.

At this time, Erin is no longer a tropical cyclone. However, the remanants of Erin continue to be that of a warm core low pressure system. Until the remanants of Erin phase out, it will continue to transport warm air and moisture to the upper levels. At this time, Erin's remenants are doing just that. It is this warm air and moisture that I conclude is pumping up the ridge (Keeping it strong enough) to have a blocking effect on the Upper Level Low over the Bahamas. In other words, keeping the ridge strong enough to prevent the Bahamas low from moving westward as quickly as expected by the models.

Itis tough to say when Erin will phase out for sure. In general, I am taking the entire interaction of the Atlantic Ridge, the Bahama's Low, the Gulf States Ridge and other weather features on a 24 hour by 24 hour basis. Now is as good of time as ever to sound like a broken record that we've all heard before.Models are not perfect science here when looking 3,4 or 5 days out folks. However, it is the best tool that the professionals have in making educated decisions. If you all remember correctly, when Dean First developed, the models had a pretty good handleon taking this storm across the NE corner of the Leewards and back into the SW Atlantic. That did not happen and the current 5 day forecast may likely be just as inaccurate, Likewise, it may be very accurate (just as we've seen on many previous storms). For now, do not put all ofyour eggs in one basket on the day 3,4,5 model plots. Dean is far enough away that everyone can be in a monitoring phase (on a 24 by 24 hour basis) and be aware that the upper level low over the Bahama's may have an effect on Dean after all if it continues to retrograde as slowly as it is right now. I know, lot'sof unanswered questions, but this is the best way to approach the future of Dean right now.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 17 2007 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:08 AM
. * * Re: 41101 Buoy MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:02 AM
. * * 41101 Buoy danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Category 5 Dean? Beaumont, TX   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles Hugh   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles dem05   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles Pablo712   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles charlottefl   Thu Aug 16 2007 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles bamffl   Thu Aug 16 2007 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles stevie   Thu Aug 16 2007 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles WeatherNut   Thu Aug 16 2007 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles allan   Thu Aug 16 2007 10:00 PM
. * * Re: GFDL native   Thu Aug 16 2007 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Category 5 Dean? rmbjoe1954   Thu Aug 16 2007 09:23 PM
. * * how would our met's rate the size of Dean so far? SeaMule   Thu Aug 16 2007 09:23 PM
. * * Category 5 Dean? neospaceblue   Thu Aug 16 2007 09:17 PM
. * * Funny Weather Channel Goof neospaceblue   Thu Aug 16 2007 09:09 PM
. * * Re: GFDL aboz56   Thu Aug 16 2007 08:50 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Steve   Thu Aug 16 2007 08:48 PM
. * * Re: GFDL aboz56   Thu Aug 16 2007 08:43 PM
. * * Re: GFDL LisaC   Thu Aug 16 2007 08:43 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Clark   Thu Aug 16 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Ron Basso   Thu Aug 16 2007 08:04 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Steve   Thu Aug 16 2007 07:55 PM
. * * Re: GFDL mikethewreck   Thu Aug 16 2007 07:30 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Lee-Delray   Thu Aug 16 2007 07:11 PM
. * * Re: GFDL stormchazer   Thu Aug 16 2007 07:01 PM
. * * Re: GFDL danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 16 2007 07:00 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Lee-Delray   Thu Aug 16 2007 06:58 PM
. * * Re: GFDL WeatherNLU   Thu Aug 16 2007 06:51 PM
. * * Re: GFDL dem05   Thu Aug 16 2007 06:44 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Kal   Thu Aug 16 2007 06:37 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Kevin   Thu Aug 16 2007 06:21 PM
. * * Re: GFDL MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 16 2007 06:03 PM
. * * Re: GFDL stormchazer   Thu Aug 16 2007 06:01 PM
. * * Where next for Dean? Rich B   Thu Aug 16 2007 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico scottsvb   Thu Aug 16 2007 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico allan   Thu Aug 16 2007 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Systems Change Rapidly scottsvb   Thu Aug 16 2007 05:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Systems Change Rapidly saluki   Thu Aug 16 2007 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Systems Change Rapidly scottsvb   Thu Aug 16 2007 05:01 PM
. * * Tropical Systems Change Rapidly charlottefl   Thu Aug 16 2007 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box OUSHAWN   Thu Aug 16 2007 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box Lee-Delray   Thu Aug 16 2007 04:11 PM
. * * "if anything?"""" SeaMule   Thu Aug 16 2007 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box twizted sizter   Thu Aug 16 2007 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box OUSHAWN   Thu Aug 16 2007 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Hebert Box StrmTrckrMiami   Thu Aug 16 2007 03:42 PM
. * * Hebert Box rmbjoe1954   Thu Aug 16 2007 03:31 PM
. * * Re: GFDL LisaC   Thu Aug 16 2007 03:23 PM
. * * Re: GFDL nl   Thu Aug 16 2007 03:20 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Random Chaos   Thu Aug 16 2007 03:15 PM
. * * Re: GFDL nl   Thu Aug 16 2007 03:03 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Random Chaos   Thu Aug 16 2007 02:51 PM
. * * Re: GFDL Thunderbird12   Thu Aug 16 2007 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean WeatherNLU   Thu Aug 16 2007 02:30 PM
. * * GFDL NewWatcher   Thu Aug 16 2007 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Dean Ed in Va   Thu Aug 16 2007 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Dean 7 Deadly Zins   Thu Aug 16 2007 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Thu Aug 16 2007 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Dean LisaC   Thu Aug 16 2007 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Dean Kal   Thu Aug 16 2007 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 16 2007 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Dean Hugh   Thu Aug 16 2007 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean GuppieGrouper   Thu Aug 16 2007 11:04 AM
. * * Dean danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 16 2007 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Valandil   Thu Aug 16 2007 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin twizted sizter   Thu Aug 16 2007 03:18 AM
. * * Re: Dean craigm   Thu Aug 16 2007 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane watches issued Hugh   Thu Aug 16 2007 02:53 AM
. * * Direction of Dean charlottefl   Thu Aug 16 2007 02:53 AM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Brad in Miami   Thu Aug 16 2007 02:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane watches issued Storm Hunter   Thu Aug 16 2007 02:50 AM
. * * Hurricane watches issued Hugh   Thu Aug 16 2007 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Thu Aug 16 2007 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Dean CategoryFive   Thu Aug 16 2007 01:51 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Thu Aug 16 2007 01:42 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Thu Aug 16 2007 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Dean rmbjoe1954   Thu Aug 16 2007 12:07 AM
. * * Re: The Rules.....again.. Storm Cooper   Thu Aug 16 2007 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Posts danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 16 2007 12:07 AM
. * * Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble Kevin   Thu Aug 16 2007 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Thu Aug 16 2007 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Deanie Hugh   Wed Aug 15 2007 11:36 PM
. * * Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble byrdlh   Wed Aug 15 2007 11:31 PM
. * * Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 11:17 PM
. * * Deanie CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Aug 15 2007 11:14 PM
. * * Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble Hugh   Wed Aug 15 2007 11:05 PM
. * * Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble HanKFranK   Wed Aug 15 2007 10:45 PM
. * * Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble allan   Wed Aug 15 2007 10:41 PM
. * * Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble hurricaneguy   Wed Aug 15 2007 10:23 PM
. * * lone star abuse, caribbean trouble HanKFranK   Wed Aug 15 2007 09:56 PM
. * * Re: GOM twizted sizter   Wed Aug 15 2007 09:56 PM
. * * Re: GOM madmumbler   Wed Aug 15 2007 09:55 PM
. * * GOM danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 15 2007 09:42 PM
. * * Posts danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 15 2007 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Clark   Wed Aug 15 2007 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin LisaC   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Clark   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Clark   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin BlueBayouLA   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Clark   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Clark   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin mikethewreck   Wed Aug 15 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin twizted sizter   Wed Aug 15 2007 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico madmumbler   Wed Aug 15 2007 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico MissouriHurricane2008   Wed Aug 15 2007 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Beach   Wed Aug 15 2007 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin twizted sizter   Wed Aug 15 2007 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico lawgator   Wed Aug 15 2007 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Allison   Wed Aug 15 2007 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Aug 15 2007 06:37 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin HURRICANELONNY   Wed Aug 15 2007 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 06:19 PM
. * * I don't think it's a northward jog SeaMule   Wed Aug 15 2007 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin scottsvb   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin h2ocean   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin scottsvb   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Rich B   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 NativePensacola   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 twizted sizter   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 Clark   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean And Erin allan   Wed Aug 15 2007 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 scottsvb   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 StrmTrckrMiami   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 StrmTrckrMiami   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 orlando fl   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 StrmTrckrMiami   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 twizted sizter   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 StrmTrckrMiami   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 hurricaneguy   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 scottsvb   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 pensacolatracker   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 OUSHAWN   Wed Aug 15 2007 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 Random Chaos   Wed Aug 15 2007 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Dean And TD#5 tumbleman   Wed Aug 15 2007 03:22 PM

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