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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
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spinup
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ensemble intensities, ofci intensity
      Fri Aug 17 2007 01:18 AM

I typically go to the Colorado State Univ. Operational Model Guidance webpage and the SFWMD Forcast Models webpage for the first postings of the track and intensity model forcasts.

In response to the previous post, Met Clark included a link to the NHC/ATCF model output webpage.

2 questions;

On the NHC/ATCF site, why is it that the "ensemble" intensities for Dean start so low (35 kts) and then increase a bit for 12 hrs, and then predict steady decrease in intensity to 10 kts in 48 hrs and then holding steady? the "current" intensity forcast has Dean steadily increasing to 115 kts in 5 days.

And, why does the OFCI (does this mean Official? Can't be) intensity graph go down to 45kts in 5 days when the NHC forcast has Dean going to 115 kts in the same time frame?

I've seen some wide differences in the intensity forcasts but this is especially broad.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* ensemble intensities, ofci intensity spinup Fri Aug 17 2007 01:18 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Goosus   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Brian B   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:02 PM
. * * a spinning top on a ball....? SeaMule   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:18 PM
. * * Re: ensemble intensities, ofci intensity Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:00 AM
. * * Re: ensemble intensities, ofci intensity spinup   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:24 PM
. * * Re: ensemble intensities, ofci intensity Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:45 PM

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