MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Category 4 Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Toward Jamaica
Thu Aug 16 2007 10:48 PM
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7:50PM EDT 17 August 2007 Update
Latest recon reports suggest that Dean is now a Category 4 hurricane, vortex message is yet to arrive, however. Estimated surface winds would be around 130-135MPH.
6:20PM EDT 17 August 2007 Update
Dean is still a strong Category 3 storm, moving westward. Hurricane watches are now up for Jamaica, and those there need to be prepared now for a major hurricane.
2 PM EDT Update 17 Aug 2007
Dean is now a major hurricane, category 3, with 125MPH winds, moving westward. Aircraft Recon found high flight level winds in their latest run through, with a pressure of 961mb.
Model wise, the GFS pushed a bit souther, while the GFDL moved east and north a bit, taking Dean barely to the west of New Orleans. While Dean will likely be a major threat anywhere it hits, that track would be a particularly bad one. That makes the GFDL an outlier, but it is adding some drama to the track forecast.
Basically, now is the time where model confidence is going down the tubes, and folks along from Mexico throughout the Gulf will need to watch. Dean may surprise us all.
(Portions from Thunderbird)
8:25 AM EDT Update 17 Aug 2007
Dean is now in the Eastern Caribbean and the track models have begun to shift a bit north due to interactions with an Upper Level low, causing a real issue for some of the models. This means, now more than ever, that the entire Gulf should be watching it. Those in Jamaica should be prepared for a major hurricane, and the Caymans after that. The GFDL projects a very strong hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in the later part of the run.
Dean itself appears to have shaken the dry air intrusion, and has begun another reintensification stage, already looking better on satellite, and the eye is once again visible on the radar out of Martinique, and recon aircraft are out there now as well.
6:15 AM EDT Update 17 Aug 2007
Hurricane Dean has "shot the gap" between Martinique to the North and St. Lucia to the south. But clipping the southern part of Martinique more. It's looking a little ragged, most likely because of light shear and some dry air that got involved in the western side of the system. That should hold or weaken Dean at least for the next 12 to 24 hours, after that, conditions once again improve, so the next direct worry, Jamaica, needs to be prepared The official forecast takes it to category 4 by the time it reaches Jamaica, and after that water temperatures are high enough to support a Category 5, which some models project.
Martinique Radar Animation Recording
The upper level low around the Bahamas, mentioned earlier, is starting to have an affect on the models, mainly complicating things a bit, several models have shifted north overnight, but most continue moving it westerly. This increases the chance that it will make it into the Gulf Southwestern Central Gulf (Southwest Gulf, north of the Yucatan) in the official forecast from the NHC. It still should be watched by the entire Gulf, however.
Original Update
Dean is holding hurricane strength as it approaches the leeward Islands, best of luck and godspeed to all those in the islands, Especially those like Martinique where the storm may cross directly over. Warnings are up for much of the Windward Islands in the Lesser Antilles.
Dean isn't looking as organized as it was earlier, but it is still quite a powerful hurricane. Hopefully it will hold or weaken a bit before it crosses the islands.
After the islands, Hurricane Dean should continue on a west to west northwest track and pass near or over the southern coast of Jamaica Sunday afternoon with sustained winds of 120mph (perhaps even higher). Dean should pass just south of Grand Cayman Island in the early hours of Monday morning and pass close to Cozumel, Mexico, late Monday evening - probably as a Category IV major hurricane. After clipping the northeast Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday, current model trends suggest that Dean will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico and begin to re-strengthen. And upper level low near the Bahamas is one of the largest variables right now for the long range track, and is the wildcard.
Track confidence is high - the western extension of the Atlantic ridge should keep Dean on a west northwest track - well south of Florida. Those in the Gulf would be wise to continue watching the track of dean.
Event Related Links:
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
{{Radarlink|jua|San Juan, Puerto Rico}}
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Martinique Radar Animation Recording
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Dean|04|4|2007|1|Hurricane Dean (Far Eastern Atlantic)}}
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