F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 285 (Idalia) , Major: 285 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 285 (Idalia) Major: 285 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands
      Fri Aug 17 2007 05:29 AM

Having chased hurricanes for a good number of years, it would merely sound cliche' to state that each Hurricane track and landfall is unique. While each event involves differing steering mechanisms, along with distinct upper air conditions, these nuances sometimes introduce merely a wrinkle of sudden deepening or weekening or perhaps a tendancy to wobble due to a storms vorticity max rotating around the eye or perhaps a given land mass and the interaction with the approaching storm. I cannot help but remember comparing forecast models, only to be outwitted by one in particular - CLIPPER. While I remain a devout supporter of statistical data which would might support Dean to move on a predominant 275 to 285 degree heading, I cannot help but to defer some reference to Climatology and Persistance.

In the case of Hurricane Dean, a late July or August, a westward retrograding 594mb high ( or higher ) to move along with a hurricane is often a signal of primary steering for future storms that season. Somewhat puzzling to me is the practically trapped cut-off low, given the significance of the CONUS Plains ridging also in place. My first thought would be that with the upcomming digging trough along the E. U.S. Seaboard, that the cut-off would tend to be pulled N.E.ward. In many years, that loud "sucking sound" you hear, would be the sound of whatever Tropical Cylcone in the general vacinity getting sucked ahead and northward into the trough and up and out to the Atlantic storm graveyard. Given the fairly merged ridging however, this seems unlikely. Even the 0Z GFS seems to slow the forward progression slightly, as compared to same forecast periods 24 hours ago.

While not a dramatic alteration to the forecast track, I do beleive that as the cut-off low is slowly pushed southwestward or westward, at some point Dean's forward motion should slow down. Depending on the time which Dean "catches" up with the influences of this mid to upper low, some wobbles or short term variations in course could occur. This could potentially raise impacting conditions to Haiti and Cuba, and potentially work to lessen a direct hit on Jaimaca if a jog north ensues. If this cut-off low is held practically stationary in the Gulf, it may not fully reflect down to the 500mb level, certainly would seem to impact Dean's outflow. Best case would be for some shear to inhibit further strengthening, along with Dean's inflow being interupted if brushing close to mountainous regions of Haiti or E. Cuba. Of course if this cut-off low is ejected southwestward ahead of Dean, then i've got $10.00 on Dean maxing out as a Cat. 5 in the W. Carib. ( but I do not see that happening ).

Those of you who read the Cyclone Discussion at 11:00pm this evening will notice that the data from the research flight was basically not recieved ( late, lost, or what? ). This is a shame, as the raw data which each forecast model is based upon, will likely be mostly unchanged - thus the mostly unchanged cluster of forecasts for days 3-5. I was eagerly awaiting the 0Z GFS, but do not much reason to anticipate much variation from earlier runs today. As the NOAA plane continues to investigate upper air either tonight or tomm., I am actually expecting newer model runs ( either 12Z or later tomm. ) to start to introduce some more northward wrinkles to the long range ( and maybe even 24 hr - 48 hr. ) forecast tracks.

Regarding an earlier post regarding Dean possibly "imploding" due to forward speed, I'd equate those odds with the liklihood of a low latitude tropical cyclone producing lots of lightning and golf ball sized hail. Picture an Olimpic runner who is very fast. He does not eventually fall over because he is running so fast. Now picture that same Olimpic runner not looking ( just like in the movies ) and suddenly running "head high" into a tree limb. Now, thats my definition of "shear misfortune". For Dean, if an upper high remains over it, and without those pesky westerlies, than Dean can run as fast as it wants to.

( sorry about the long post )

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Category 4 Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Toward Jamaica MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 17 2007 05:29 AM
. * * Hispanola charlottefl   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward madmumbler   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward craigm   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Dean weather999   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Dean Hugh   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Dean Random Chaos   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Dean MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 18 2007 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Dean danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Dean Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:41 PM
. * * Dean Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:38 PM
. * * Re: honeymoon Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:37 PM
. * * Re: honeymoon Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward weather_wise911   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:08 PM
. * * honeymoon HanKFranK   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward BlueBayou1   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward wxman007   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Bloodstar   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward madmumbler   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Kevin   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 17 2007 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward charlottefl   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles anomaly18   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MissouriHurricane2008   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Steve H1   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward Steve H1   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles FlaRebel   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles charlottefl   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles LisaC   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles LisaC   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles twizted sizter   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Major Hurricane Dean Moving Westward weather999   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles madmumbler   Fri Aug 17 2007 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MissouriHurricane2008   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles WeatherNut   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles craigm   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles WeatherNut   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles scottsvb   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles scottsvb   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles EMSDoc1   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles scottsvb   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Texas Cane Tracker   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles weatherguy08   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands MissouriHurricane2008   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles NewWatcher   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands anomaly18   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles NewWatcher   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:18 PM
. * * She's opening her eye's DaViking   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Random Chaos   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles CDMOrlando   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles madmumbler   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Ed in Va   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Thunderbird12   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Kraig   Fri Aug 17 2007 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Beach   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:27 PM
. * * Dean And Dry Air charlottefl   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands Steve H1   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles neospaceblue   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles neospaceblue   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:52 AM
. * * long range forecasts SeaMule   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Hugh   Fri Aug 17 2007 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 06:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Clark   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands weathernet   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:18 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands dem05   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:14 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands hurricaneguy   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:05 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands weather999   Fri Aug 17 2007 05:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Windward Islands weatherguy08   Fri Aug 17 2007 04:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles ftlaudbob   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:50 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:18 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles OUSHAWN   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles hurricaneguy   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles charlottefl   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Aug 17 2007 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles blue flash   Fri Aug 17 2007 02:56 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 39 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 43747

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center