There's a blowup of deep convection on the latest IR/AVN image, right after Dean bridged the gap. It looks as if Dean took a look at all of the hot water and seemingly ideal conditions ahead and said "This is what I've been looking for!"
Concerning the long-term track - the models still point to a central Texas landfall, at least the ones I've seen at WU and Skeetobite. Having said that, I really do not think it's approapriate to tell anyone in the Gulf that they can let their guard down this far out. Certainly it appears that Texas is under the gun, but there is a long time and a lot of uncertainty in the future track. It all depends upon the low, and what happens with it. I'm thinking landfall could be as far north as where Erin came ashore. Given Dean's large size, that positionng would produce effects further to the east, I think, so that Louisiana would get some strong winds, even if they didn't get the brunt of Dean's wraith. Plus... we all have seen how much the forecast can change over 5 days.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Re: Hurricane Dean Approaches Lesser Antilles
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