And Charley reached 150 mph and was moving at over 20 mph and Wilma had reached 125 mph after leaving Florida while moving around the same speed, so we could see Dean reach Cat 5.
Given current trends and conditons, I'd say it's probably a good bewt that Dean will reach Cat 5 at some point on its trek across the Caribbean. I say that based upon recent history (the 2005 season), and the fact that the NHC even hints at the possibility in the last several discussions, and the official forecast calls for a maximum wind of 145 mph. It's nearly impossible to predict intensity changes in Cat 4/5 hurricanes due to eyewall replacement cycles, so it's unlikely the NHC would actually forecast Dean to reach Cat 5, I believe.
With the pressure back down to 970 and the satellite presentation improving by the hour again, I suspect Dean will be a Cat 3 at 11am, or at least very close to it, but I didn't expect the intensification to level off overnight.
I just looked at the latest vortex message. Closed eyewall now - it was open to the west yesterday. That's another indication that Dean is well on the way to a Cat 3... and beyond.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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