12Z GFDL model is not good to look at. It takes the system across the tip of Haiti as a category 3-4, then strengthens it to category 5 as it passes between Cuba and Jamaica and keeps it that strong until it crosses Cuba. Then restrenthens it to category 5 heading into the Louisiana coast.
Let us hope that this model is wrong.
The HWRF also passes the storm across the tip of Haiti and then between Jamaica and Cuba. Then it swings it more southward across the tip of the Yucatan. It maintains about 1 category less at all times than the GFDL. The HWRF ends before it impacts the Texas coast, but the track is clear that it is heading to Texas.
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